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A Political Economy Theory Of Fiscal Policy And Unemployment

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  • Marco Battaglini
  • Stephen Coate

Abstract

This paper presents a political economy theory of fiscal policy and unemployment. The underlying economy is one in which unemployment can arise but can be mitigated by tax cuts and increases in public production. Such policies are fiscally costly, but can be financed by issuing government debt. Policy decisions are made by a legislature consisting of representatives from different political districts. With the available policies, it is possible for the government to completely eliminate unemployment in the long run. However, with political decision making, the economy always has unemployment. Unemployment is higher when the private sector experiences negative shocks. When these shocks occur, the government employs debt-financed fiscal stimulus plans which involve both tax cuts and public production increases. When the private sector is healthy, the government contracts debt until it reaches a floor level. Unemployment levels are weakly increasing in the economy's debt level, strictly so when the private sector experiences negative shocks. Conditional on the level of workers employed, the mix of public and private output is distorted.
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Suggested Citation

  • Marco Battaglini & Stephen Coate, 2016. "A Political Economy Theory Of Fiscal Policy And Unemployment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 303-337, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jeurec:v:14:y:2016:i:2:p:303-337
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jeea.2016.14.issue-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Hülya Eraslan & Kirill S. Evdokimov & Jan Zápal, 2022. "Dynamic Legislative Bargaining," Springer Books, in: Emin Karagözoğlu & Kyle B. Hyndman (ed.), Bargaining, chapter 0, pages 151-175, Springer.
    2. Cristina Boţa-Avram & Adrian Groşanu & Paula-Ramona Răchişan & Sorin Romulus Berinde, 2021. "Granger Causal Nexus between Good Public Governance and Unemployment: Evidence from Cross-Country Panel Data Investigation," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-11, February.
    3. Uchida, Yuki & Ono, Tetsuo, 2021. "Political economy of taxation, debt ceilings, and growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Roberts, Simon H. & Foran, Barney D. & Axon, Colin J. & Stamp, Alice V., 2021. "Is the service industry really low-carbon? Energy, jobs and realistic country GHG emissions reductions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    5. Dim, Chukwuma & Koerner, Kevin & Wolski, Marcin & Zwart, Sanne, 2022. "Hot off the press: News-implied sovereign default risk," EIB Working Papers 2022/06, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    6. Barseghyan, Levon & Battaglini, Marco, 2016. "Political economy of debt and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 36-51.
    7. Andrian, Leandro Gaston & Valencia, Oscar & Hirs, Jorge & Urrea Rios, Ivan Leonardo, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and Economic Cycles: Quality (Always) Matters," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12639, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Akalbeo, Benard & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & Yedgenov, Bauyrzhan, 2023. "Fiscal decentralization and structural versus cyclical unemployment levels," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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