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An Economist's Perspective on Probability Matching

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Author Info
 Vulkan, Nir
Abstract

The experimental phenomenon known as "probability matching" is often offered as evidence in support of adaptive learning models and against the idea that people maximise their expected utility. Recent interest in dynamic-based equilibrium theories means the term reappears in Economics. However, there seems to be conflicting views on what is actually meant by the term and about the validity of the data. The purpose of this paper is therefore threefold: First, to introduce today's readers to what is meant by probability matching, and in particular to clarify which aspects of this phenomenon challenge the utility-maximisation hypothesis. Second, to familiarise the reader with the different theoretical approaches to behaviour in such circumstances, and to focus on the differences in predictions between these theories in light of recent advances. Third, to provide a comprehensive survey of repeated, binary choice experiments. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Economic Surveys.

Volume (Year): 14 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 101-18
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:14:y:2000:i:1:p:101-18

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  2. Yaakov Kareev & Klaus Fiedler & Judith Avrahami, 2007. "Expected Prediction Accuracy and the Usefulness of Contingencies," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000171, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Wolfgang Gaissmaier & Lael J. Schooler & Rui Mata, 2008. "An ecological perspective to cognitive limits: Modeling environment-mind interactions with ACT-R," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 3, pages 278-291, March. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bar-Eli, Michael & Azar, Ofer H. & Ritov, Ilana & Keidar-Levin, Yael & Schein, Galit, 2005. "Action bias among elite soccer goalkeepers: The case of penalty kicks," MPRA Paper 4477, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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