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A Macroeconomic Analysis of EU Accession under Alternative Monetary Policies

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  • MICHAEL B. DEVEREUX

Abstract

This article provides an analytical discussion of the adjustment to EU accession for an economy under alternative assumptions about monetary policy rules. The post-accession phase is characterized by rapid capital inflows and real exchange rate appreciation. If accession is combined with membership of the euro area and a pegged exchange rate, then the post-accession period exhibits excessive foreign borrowing, high wage inflation, an excessive stock market boom, and much too rapid growth in the non-traded sector at the expense of the exportable goods sector. Alternative monetary policies can be used to eliminate the inefficiencies of the post-accession adjustment, but some bring real costs in terms of lower growth and unemployment. We find that the best policy is one of flexible inflation targeting with some weight on exchange rate stability. In the absence of exchange rate adjustment, fiscal policy could be used, but this requires complicated time-varying expenditure taxes. While the analytical discussion emphasizes the benefits of exchange rate adjustment, a later section of the article explores some more recent arguments regarding non-traditional costs of exchange rate volatility. Copyright (c) Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2003.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Common Market Studies.

Volume (Year): 41 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 941-964

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:41:y:2003:i:5:p:941-964

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  1. Michael B. Devereux & Philip R. Lane, 2002. "Understanding Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility," Trinity Economics Papers 200211, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
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  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 2529, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading And Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569, May.
  7. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-02, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  8. Flood, R.P. & Rose, A.K., 1992. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," Papers 529, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  9. Frank Barry & John Bradley & Michal Kejak & David Vavra, 2003. "The Czech economic transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(3), pages 539-567, 09.
  10. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Lipinska, Anna, 2006. "The Maastricht convergence criteria and optimal monetary policy for the EMU accession countries," MPRA Paper 1795, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Lipinska, Anna, 2008. "The Maastricht Criteria and Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Mix for the EMU Accession Countries," MPRA Paper 16376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Sanchez, Marcelo, 2007. "Monetary stabilisation in a currency union: The role of catching up member states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 29-40.
  4. Anna Lipinska, 2006. "Monetary regime choice in the accession countries - a theoretical analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 243, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2006. "Implications of monetary union for catching-up member states," Working Paper Series 0630, European Central Bank.
  6. Lipinska, Anna, 2008. "The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and Monetary Regimes for the EMU Accession Countries," MPRA Paper 16375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Mikek, Peter, 2008. "Alternative monetary policies and fiscal regime in new EU members," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 335-353, December.
  8. Ravenna, Federico, 2005. "The European Monetary Union as a commitment device for new EU member states," Working Paper Series 0516, European Central Bank.

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