How Persistent is Stock Return Volatility? An Answer with Markov Regime Switching Stochastic Volatility Models
AbstractWe propose generalised stochastic volatility models with Markov regime changing state equations (SVMRS) to investigate the important properties of volatility in stock returns, specifically high persistence and smoothness. The model suggests that volatility is far less persistent and smooth than the conventional GARCH or stochastic volatility. Persistent short regimes are more likely to occur when volatility is low, while far less persistence is likely to be observed in high volatility regimes. Comparison with different classes of volatility supports the SVMRS as an appropriate proxy volatility measure. Our results indicate that volatility could be far more difficult to estimate and forecast than is generally believed. Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Business Finance & Accounting.
Volume (Year): 34 (2007-06)
Issue (Month): 5-6 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0306-686X
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Pan, Qi & Li, Yong, 2013. "Testing volatility persistence on Markov switching stochastic volatility models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 45-50.
- Gilles Dufrenot & Dominique Guegan & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2008.
"Changing-regime volatility: A fractionally integrated SETAR model,"
UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers)
- Gilles Dufrenot & Dominique Guegan & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2008. "Changing-regime volatility: a fractionally integrated SETAR model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 519-526.
- Anne Peguin-Feissolle & Gilles Dufrénot & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Changing-regime volatility : A fractionally integrated SETAR model," Working Papers halshs-00410540, HAL.
- Alexander Subbotin & Thierry Chauveau & Kateryna Shapovalova, 2009. "Volatility Models : from GARCH to Multi-Horizon Cascades," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00390636, HAL.
- Subbotin, Alexandre, 2009. "Volatility Models: from Conditional Heteroscedasticity to Cascades at Multiple Horizons," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 15(3), pages 94-138.
- Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.