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An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields

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  • Alain Durré
  • Pierre Giot

Abstract

This paper assesses the contemporaneous relationship between stock prices, earnings and long-term government bond yields for a large number of countries. The time period of our data spans several decades. In a time series framework our analysis first tests the presence of a long-term contemporaneous relationship between these three variables (the so-called Fed model). Next, we assess if government bond yields play a significant role in the long-run relationship. Our empirical results question the validity of the Fed model in the sense that we show that long-term market movements are mainly driven by the earnings yield and not the differential between bond and earnings yields. As such, our analysis validates the results of Asness (2003) for a much larger collection of countries while using a dynamic time series (cointegration) framework. Finally, we also show that changes in long-term government bond yields have a short-term impact on stock prices. Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Business Finance & Accounting.

Volume (Year): 34 (2007-04)
Issue (Month): 3-4 ()
Pages: 613-641

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:34:y:2007-04:i:3-4:p:613-641

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  1. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 11018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  17. MacDonald, Ronald & Power, David, 1995. "Stock prices, dividends and retention: Long-run relationships and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 135-151, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2012. "Fractional Integration and Cointegration in US Financial Time Series Data," Faculty Working Papers 12/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  2. Pierre Giot & Mikael Petitjean, 2009. "Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 365-384.
  3. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: better than a random walk?," CORE Discussion Papers 2006089, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  5. François Coppens & David Vivet, 2006. "The single European electricity market: A long road to convergence," Working Paper Document 84, National Bank of Belgium.
  6. Joachim Keller, 2008. "Agency problems in structured finance – a case study of European CLOs," Working Paper Document 137, National Bank of Belgium.
  7. Helga De Doncker, 2006. "Crédits aux particuliers - Analyse des données de la Centrale des Crédits aux Particuliers," Working Paper Document 78, National Bank of Belgium.
  8. Harm Bandholz & Jorg Clostermann & Franz Seitz, 2009. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 539-550.
  9. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2006. "A new Keynesian model with unemployment," Working Paper Research 92, National Bank of Belgium.
  10. Frédéric Lagneaux, 2008. "Economic Importance of Belgian Transport Logistics," Working Paper Document 125, National Bank of Belgium.
  11. Nancy Masschelein, 2007. "Monitoring pro-cyclicality under the capital requirements directive : preliminary concepts for developing a framework," Working Paper Document 120, National Bank of Belgium.
  12. Frédéric Lagneaux, 2005. "Importance économique du Port Autonome de Liège: rapport 2003," Working Paper Document 75, National Bank of Belgium.
  13. Joseph Plasmans & Tomasz Michalak & Jorge Fornero, 2006. "Simulation, estimation and welfare implications of monetary policies in a 3-country NOEM model," Working Paper Research 94, National Bank of Belgium.
  14. Joseph Friedman & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2005. "European Stock Market Dynamics Before and After the Introduction of the Euro," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  15. Migiakis, Petros M. & Bekiris, Fivos V., 2009. "Regime switches between dividend and bond yields," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 198-204, September.

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