This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Alain Durré
Pierre Giot

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper assesses the contemporaneous relationship between stock prices, earnings and long-term government bond yields for a large number of countries. The time period of our data spans several decades. In a time series framework our analysis first tests the presence of a long-term contemporaneous relationship between these three variables (the so-called Fed model). Next, we assess if government bond yields play a significant role in the long-run relationship. Our empirical results question the validity of the Fed model in the sense that we show that long-term market movements are mainly driven by the earnings yield and not the differential between bond and earnings yields. As such, our analysis validates the results of Asness (2003) for a much larger collection of countries while using a dynamic time series (cointegration) framework. Finally, we also show that changes in long-term government bond yields have a short-term impact on stock prices. Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2007.02010.x
File Format: text/html
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Business Finance & Accounting.

Volume (Year): 34 (2007-04)
Issue (Month): 3-4 ()
Pages: 613-641
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:34:y:2007-04:i:3-4:p:613-641

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0306-686X

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0306-686X

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Joel Lander & Athanasios Orphanides & Martha Douvogiannis, 1997. "Earnings forecasts and the predictability of stock returns: evidence from trading the S&P," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-6, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Richard D.F. Harris & Rene Sanchez-Valle, 2000. "The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3&4), pages 333-357. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 639-668, May.
    Other versions:
  4. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 19-23, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Stock Returns and Inflation: A Long-Horizon Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1346-55, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kevin J. Lansing, 2004. "Inflation-induced valuation errors in the stock market," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct 29. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Marshall, David A, 1992. " Inflation and Asset Returns in a Monetary Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1315-42, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James, 2001. "Stock Prices and Inflation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association and Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 587-602, Winter.
  13. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1295, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Levin, Eric J & Wright, Robert E, 1998. "The Information Content of the Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(0), pages 89-101, Supplemen.
  15. S. I. Spyrou, 2004. "Are stocks a good hedge against inflation? evidence from emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 41-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. MacDonald, Ronald & Power, David, 1995. "Stock prices, dividends and retention: Long-run relationships and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 135-151, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Favero, Carlo A. & Mosca, Federico, 2001. "Uncertainty on monetary policy and the expectations model of the term structure of interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 369-375, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Richard D.F. Harris & Rene Sanchez-Valle, 2000. "The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3-4), pages 333-357. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Joseph Friedman & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2005. "European Stock Market Dynamics Before and After the Introduction of the Euro," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  2. Frédéric Lagneaux, 2008. "Economic Importance of Belgian Transport Logistics," Documents series 200801-01, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  3. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: better than a random walk?," CORE Discussion Papers 2006089, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. António Afonso, 2005. "Ricardian fiscal regimes in the European Union," Working Paper Series 558, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Frédéric Lagneaux, 2005. "Importance économique du Port Autonome de Liège: rapport 2003," Documents series 200510-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  6. Joachim Keller, 2008. "Agency problems in structured finance – a case study of European CLOs," Documents series 200808-22, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  7. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  8. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2006. "A new Keynesian model with unemployment," Research series 200610-4, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Guido Wolswijk, 2005. "On some fiscal effects on mortgage debt growth in the EU," Working Paper Series 526, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Joseph Plasmans & Tomasz Michalak & Jorge Fornero, 2006. "Simulation, estimation and welfare implications of monetary policies in a 3-country NOEM model," Research series 200610-6, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  11. Philippe Moës, 2008. "Multivariate structural time series models with dual cycles : implications for measurement of output gap and potential growth," Research series 200808-20, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  12. Nancy Masschelein, 2007. "Monitoring pro-cyclicality under the capital requirements directive : preliminary concepts for developing a framework," Documents series 200711-22, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  13. Elizaveta Krylova & Jussi Nikkinen & Sami Vähämaa, 2005. "Cross-dynamics of volatility term structures implied by foreign exchange options," Working Paper Series 530, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Annick Bruggeman, 2007. "Can Excess Liquidity Signal an Asset Price Boom?," Research series 200708-08, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  15. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "Short-term market timing using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2006090, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Andreas Schabert, 2005. "Discretionary policy, multiple equilibria, and monetary instruments," Working Paper Series 533, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Helga De Doncker, 2006. "Crédits aux particuliers - Analyse des données de la Centrale des Crédits aux Particuliers," Documents series 200601-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  18. Luis J. Álvarez & Pablo Burriel & Ignacio Hernando, 2005. "Price setting behaviour in Spain: evidence from micro PPI data," Working Paper Series 522, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Philippe Moës, 2006. "The production function approach to the Belgian output gap, Estimation of a Multivariate Structural Time Series Model," Research series 200609-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Carine Swartenbroekx, 2007. "The gas chain : influence of its specificities on the liberalisation process," Documents series 200711-24, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  21. François Coppens & David Vivet, 2006. "The single European electricity market: A long road to convergence," Documents series 200605-3, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  22. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Joerg & Seitz, Franz, 2007. "Explaining the US Bond Yield Conundrum," MPRA Paper 2386, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. François Coppens & Fernando Gonzáles & Gerhard Winkler, 2007. "The performance of credit rating systems in the assessment of collateral used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations," Research series 200710-12, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Springer Verlag was the first commercial publisher to be listed on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-22.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.