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The Effect of Futures Market Volume on Spot Market Volatility

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Author Info

  • John Board

    (London School of Economics and Political Science,)

  • Gleb Sandmann
  • Charles Sutcliffe

Abstract

There has been considerable interest, both academic and regulatory, in the hypothesis that the higher is the volume in the futures market, the greater is the destabilizing effect on the stock market. We show that conventional approaches, such as adding exogenous variables to GARCH models, may lead to false inferences in tests of this question. Using a stochastic volatility model, we show that, contrary to regulatory concern and the results of other papers, contemporaneous informationless futures market trading has no significant effect on spot market volatility. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2001.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Business Finance & Accounting.

Volume (Year): 28 (2001-09)
Issue (Month): 7&8 ()
Pages: 799-819

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:28:y:2001-09:i:7&8:p:799-819

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0306-686X

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Cited by:
  1. S. Bhaumik & M. Karanasos & A. Kartsaklas, 2008. "Derivatives Trading and the Volume-Volatility Link in the Indian Stock Market," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp935, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Gerard L. Gannon, 2008. "Market Makers V's The General Public: A First Look at S&P500 Futures Trade Data," Accounting, Finance, Financial Planning and Insurance Series 2008_02, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  3. Kym Brown, 2001. "Closing the Divide - Issues When Developing a Bond Market: The Case of Sri Lanka," Accounting, Finance, Financial Planning and Insurance Series 2001_06, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  4. Gerard L. Gannon, 2009. "Dispersion of Information or Market Behaviour: General Public Trading in S&P500 Index Futures," Accounting, Finance, Financial Planning and Insurance Series 2009_01, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  5. Bohl, Martin T. & Stephan, Patrick M., 2013. "Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Spot Prices? New Evidence for Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(04), November.
  6. Juan A. Lafuente & Manuel Illueca Muñoz, 2003. "The Effect Of Futures Trading Activity On The Distribution Of Spot Market Returns," Working Papers. Serie EC 2003-23, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  7. Juan A. Lafuente & Manuel Illueca Muñoz, 2004. "Introducing The Mini-Futures Contract On Ibex-35: Implications For Price Discovery And Volatility Transmission," Working Papers. Serie EC 2004-13, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  8. Gerard Gannon & Siu Pang Au-Yeung, 2007. "Modelling Regulatory Change V's Volume of Trade Effects in HSIF and HSI Volatility: A Note," Accounting, Finance, Financial Planning and Insurance Series 2007_06, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  9. Gerard Gannon & Chi-Ying Chang, 2007. "Regulatory Change and Micro Structure Effects in SPI Futures," Accounting, Finance, Financial Planning and Insurance Series 2007_08, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.

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