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Adverse Shocks in Agriculture: The Assessment and Management of Downside Risk

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  • Jean‐Paul Chavas

Abstract

This paper investigates the assessment and effects of adverse shocks on agricultural production, with an application to corn yield. Adverse shocks are assessed by the probability of facing low yields, i.e. by the probability of being exposed to downside risk. Defined in terms of willingness‐to‐pay to eliminate risk, the ex‐ante cost of facing adverse events is evaluated under prospect theory. Prospect theory is relevant in the evaluation of adverse shocks as it identifies a role for both loss aversion and oversensitivity to low probability events. The analysis is applied to experimental data on corn yield in the US Corn Belt. Estimates show how the distribution of corn yield is affected by management and technology. Implications for the cost of adverse shocks are examined. The results show how management and technology can reduce exposure to adverse shocks and lower the cost of risk in agriculture.

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  • Jean‐Paul Chavas, 2019. "Adverse Shocks in Agriculture: The Assessment and Management of Downside Risk," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 731-748, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:70:y:2019:i:3:p:731-748
    DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12312
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    Cited by:

    1. Hongli Feng & Xiaodong Du & David A. Hennessy, 2020. "Depressed demand for crop insurance contracts, and a rationale based on third generation Prospect Theory," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(1), pages 59-73, January.
    2. Abdul Muis Hasibuan & Daniel Gregg & Randy Stringer, 2021. "The role of certification, risk and time preferences in promoting adoption of climate-resilient citrus varieties in Indonesia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-21, February.
    3. Harkness, Caroline & Areal, Francisco J. & Semenov, Mikhail A. & Senapati, Nimai & Shield, Ian F. & Bishop, Jacob, 2021. "Stability of farm income: The role of agricultural diversity and agri-environment scheme payments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    4. Bontemps, Christophe & Bougherara, Douadia & Nauges, Céline, 2020. "Do Risk Preferences Really Matter? The Case of Pesticide Use in Agriculture," TSE Working Papers 20-1095, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Thomas Slijper & Yann de Mey & P Marijn Poortvliet & Miranda P M Meuwissen, 2022. "Quantifying the resilience of European farms using FADN," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 49(1), pages 121-150.

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