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Forecasting the Adoption of GM Oilseed Rape: Evidence from a Discrete Choice Experiment in Germany

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  • Gunnar Breustedt
  • Jörg Müller-Schee�el
  • Uwe Latacz-Lohmann
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    Abstract

    This paper explores farmers' willingness to adopt genetically modified (GM) oilseed rape prior to its commercial release and estimates the 'demand' for the new technology. The analysis is based upon choice experiments with 202 German arable farmers. A multinomial probit estimation reveals that GM attributes such as gross margin, expected liability from cross pollination, or flexibility in returning to conventional oilseed rape significantly affect the likelihood of adoption. Neighbouring farmers' attitudes towards GM cropping and a number of farmer and farm characteristics were also found to be significant determinants of prospective adoption. Demand simulations suggest that adoption rates are very sensitive to the profit difference between GM and non-GM rape varieties. A monopolistic seed price would substantially reduce demand for the new technology. A monopolistic seed supplier would reap between 45% and 80% of the GM rent, and the deadweight loss of the monopoly would range between 15% and 30% of that rent. The remaining rent for farmers may be too small to outweigh possible producer price discounts resulting from the costs of segregating GM and non-GM oilseed rape along the supply chain. Copyright (c) 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation (c) 2008 The Agricultural Economics Society.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Agricultural Economics.

    Volume (Year): 59 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 2 (06)
    Pages: 237-256

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:59:y:2008:i:2:p:237-256

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    Cited by:
    1. Areal, Francisco J. & Riesgo, Laura & Gomez-Barbero, Manuel & Rodriguez-Cerezo, Emilio, 2011. "Adoption of GMHT Crops: Coexistence Policy Consequences in the European Union," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114227, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Areal, Francisco J. & Riesgo, Laura & Gómez-Barbero, Manuel & Rodríguez-Cerezo, Emilio, 2012. "Consequences of a coexistence policy on the adoption of GMHT crops in the European Union," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 401-411.
    3. Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe & Schulz, Norbert & Breustedt, Gunnar, 2014. "Assessing Farmers' Willingness to Accept "Greening": Insights from a Discrete Choice Experiment in Gremany," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 170560, Agricultural Economics Society.
    4. Rick Welsh & Rebecca Rivers, 2011. "Environmental management strategies in agriculture," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 297-302, September.
    5. Giannoccaro, Giacomo & Bartolini, Fabio & Raggi, Meri & Viaggi, Davide, 2013. "Assessing the CAP influence on European farmers’ preferences towards the adoption of renewable energy production," 2013 Second Congress, June 6-7, 2013, Parma, Italy 149914, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    6. Skevas, Theodoros & Wesseler, Justus & Fevereiro, Pedro, 2009. "Coping with ex-ante regulations for planting Bt maize: the Portuguese experience," MPRA Paper 25609, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Conor Keelan & Fiona Thorne & Paul Flanagan & Carol Newman & Ewen Mullins, 2008. "Adoption of GM Technology at Farm Level," Working Papers 0810, Rural Economy and Development Programme,Teagasc.
    8. Anastassiadis, Friederieke & Feil, Jan-Henning & Musshoff, Oliver & Schilling, Philipp, 2013. "Analysing farmers' use of price hedging instruments: an experimental approach," DARE Discussion Papers 1306, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    9. Giannoccaro, Giacomo & Berbel, Julio, 2012. "The Determinants of Farmer’s Intended Behaviour Towards the Adoption of Energy Crops in Southern Spain: an Application of the Classification Tree-Method," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 2, August.

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