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A Regression Test Of The Present Value Model Of Us Farmland Prices

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  • A. Tegene
  • F. Kuchler

Abstract

Regression methods previously employed to study stock price movements are used to test how well the present value model under rational expectations explains farmland price movements. Based on data on farmland prices and rents (returns to landownership) covering the period 1921‐89 from three agricultural regions in the United States, the empirical results reject the present value model under rational expectations. These results suggest that farmers may be well‐characterised as displaying satisficing rather than profit‐maximising behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Tegene & F. Kuchler, 1993. "A Regression Test Of The Present Value Model Of Us Farmland Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 135-143, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:44:y:1993:i:1:p:135-143
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-9552.1993.tb00256.x
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    2. Stam, Jerome M. & Koenig, Steven R. & Wallace, George B., 1995. "Life Insurance Company Mortgage Lending to U.S. Agriculture: Challenges and Opportunities," Agricultural Economic Reports 308429, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Xiaodong Du & David A. Hennessy & William M. Edwards, 2007. "Determinants of Iowa Cropland Cash Rental Rates: Testing Ricardian Rent Theory," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 07-wp454, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    4. Gutierrez, Luciano & Erickson, Kenneth W. & Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "The Present Value Model, Farmland Prices and Structural Breaks," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24702, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Laure Latruffe & Chantal Le Mouël, 2009. "Capitalization Of Government Support In Agricultural Land Prices: What Do We Know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 659-691, September.
    6. Saguatti, Annachiara & Erickson, Kenneth & Gutierrez, Luciano, 2014. "Spatial panel models for the analysis of land prices," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182757, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Patrick de Fontnouvelle & Sergio H. Lence, 2002. "Transaction Costs and the Present Value “Puzzle” of Farmland Prices," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 549-565, January.
    8. Meissner, Luise & Plogmann, Jana & Musshoff, Oliver, 2021. "Are Policy Changes Visible in German Farmland Price Time Series?," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315027, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Stam, Jerome M., 1995. "Credit as a Factor Influencing Farmland Values," Staff Reports 278779, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. B. James Deaton & Chad Lawley, 2022. "A survey of literature examining farmland prices: A Canadian focus," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(2), pages 95-121, June.
    11. Fraser, Rob W., 1997. "Seasonal variability, land values and willingness-to-pay for a forward wheat contract with protein premiums and discounts," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(2), pages 1-17.
    12. Natividad Guadalajar Olmeda & Mª L.Fenollos Ribera & Fco. Javier Rib Sanchis, 2001. "The farmland market in Spain. Econometric models for the estimation of the market value," ERES eres2001_174, European Real Estate Society (ERES).

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