IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/irvfin/v9y2009i3p269-294.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Common Risk Factors Versus a Mispricing Factor of Tokyo Stock Exchange Firms: Inquiries into the Fundamental Value Derived from Analyst Earnings Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • KEIICHI KUBOTA
  • KAZUYUKI SUDA
  • HITOSHI TAKEHARA

Abstract

We search for common factors and/or a mispricing factor for Tokyo Stock Exchange firms. We utilize the Edwards–Bell–Ohlson model to compute the firms' fundamental value and divide this value by the firms' market price to construct a new variable called a ‘value‐to‐price ratio’ (VPR). We find that this VPR variable can generate abnormal returns even after adjusting for the risk factors related to portfolio style differences. To find out whether it is indeed a risk factor or simply a characteristic, we construct return difference portfolios of the high VPR stocks minus the low value‐to‐price stocks and call this portfolio the upward‐forecast minus downward‐forecast (UMD) factor. Fama and MacBeth test indicate that the risk premium for this UMD factor is positive. The best model in terms of the adjusted R2 value is the four‐factor model in which the UMD factor is added to the Fama and French three factors. GMM Euler condition tests reveal that the UMD factor helps to price assets and that the four‐factor model is not rejected. We conclude the VPR variable contains new information content that is not contained in the conventional Fama and French's three factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Keiichi Kubota & Kazuyuki Suda & Hitoshi Takehara, 2009. "Common Risk Factors Versus a Mispricing Factor of Tokyo Stock Exchange Firms: Inquiries into the Fundamental Value Derived from Analyst Earnings Forecasts," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 269-294, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:9:y:2009:i:3:p:269-294
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2443.2009.01091.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2443.2009.01091.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-2443.2009.01091.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. "The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    2. Chen, Nai-fu & Zhang, Feng, 1998. "Risk and Return of Value Stocks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(4), pages 501-535, October.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. "Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-590, June.
    4. Hajime Watabe & Takao Kobayashi, 2001. ""Earning Forecasts, Earning Surprises and the Value Anomaly"(in Japanese)," CIRJE J-Series CIRJE-J-42, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    5. Kent Daniel & Sheridan Titman & K.C. John Wei, 2001. "Explaining the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns in Japan: Factors or Characteristics?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 743-766, April.
    6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    7. Frankel, Richard & Lee, Charles M. C., 1998. "Accounting valuation, market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 283-319, June.
    8. Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1988. " An Unconditional Asset-Pricing Test and the Role of Firm Size as an Instrumental Variable for Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 309-325, June.
    9. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
    10. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    11. Ferson, Wayne E & Schadt, Rudi W, 1996. "Measuring Fund Strategy and Performance in Changing Economic Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 425-461, June.
    12. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    13. Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
    14. Francis, J & Olsson, P & Oswald, DR, 2000. "Comparing the accuracy and explainability of dividend, free cash flow, and abnormal earnings equity value estimates," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 45-70.
    15. Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. "Structural and Return Characteristics of Small and Large Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1467-1484, September.
    16. Chan, K. C. & Chen, Nai-fu & Hsieh, David A., 1985. "An exploratory investigation of the firm size effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 451-471, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Colin T. Bowers & Chris Heaton, 2013. "What does high-dimensional factor analysis tell us about risk factors in the Australian stock market?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(11), pages 1395-1404, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti & Jay Shanken, 2013. "Pricing Model Performance and the Two‐Pass Cross‐Sectional Regression Methodology," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2617-2649, December.
    2. Martin Wallmeier, 2000. "Determinanten erwarteter Renditen am deutschen Aktienmarkt — Eine empirische Untersuchung anhand ausgewählter Kennzahlen," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 27-57, February.
    3. Kim, Dongcheol & Kim, Tong Suk & Min, Byoung-Kyu, 2011. "Future labor income growth and the cross-section of equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 67-81, January.
    4. Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 2002. "Empirical Evaluation of Asset‐Pricing Models: A Comparison of the SDF and Beta Methods," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2337-2367, October.
    5. Kang, Jangkoo & Kim, Tong Suk & Lee, Changjun & Min, Byoung-Kyu, 2011. "Macroeconomic risk and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3158-3173.
    6. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    7. De Moor, Lieven & Sercu, Piet, 2013. "The smallest firm effect: An international study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 129-155.
    8. Adrian, Tobias & Franzoni, Francesco, 2009. "Learning about beta: Time-varying factor loadings, expected returns, and the conditional CAPM," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 537-556, September.
    9. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2007. "CAPM over the long run: 1926-2001," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-40, January.
    10. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    11. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    12. Leite, André Luis & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Pinto, Antonio Carlos Figueiredo & da Silveira Barbedo, Claudio Henrique, 2020. "The Fama-French’s five-factor model relation with interest rates and macro variables," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    13. Jagannathan, Ravi & Kubota, Keiichi & Takehara, Hitoshi, 1998. "Relationship between Labor-Income Risk and Average Return: Empirical Evidence from the Japanese Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(3), pages 319-347, July.
    14. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    15. William Goetzmann & Akiko Watanabe & Masahiro Watanabe, 2008. "Investor Expectations, Business Conditions, and the Pricing of Beta-Instability Risk," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2656, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2009.
    16. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    17. Fletcher, Jonathan & Kihanda, Joseph, 2005. "An examination of alternative CAPM-based models in UK stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2995-3014, December.
    18. Bessler, Wolfgang & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2007. "Conditional Performance Evaluation for German Mutual Equity Funds," Working papers 2007/22, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    19. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2010. "Relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1637-1649, July.
    20. Khan, Mozaffar, 2008. "Are accruals mispriced Evidence from tests of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 55-77, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:9:y:2009:i:3:p:269-294. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1369-412X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.