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The scars of youth: Effects of early†career unemployment on future unemployment experience

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  • Achim SCHMILLEN
  • Matthias UMKEHRER

Abstract

Does early†career unemployment cause future unemployment? The authors approach this question using German administrative matched employer–employee data that track almost 700,000 individuals over 24 years. Instrumenting early†career unemployment with firm†specific labour demand shocks, they find significant and long†lasting “scarring effects†. In the mean, each additional day of unemployment during the first eight years on the labour market increases unemployment in the following 16 years by half a day. However, quantile regressions show that the scarring effects are much stronger for individuals who already suffer from lengthy and repeated spells of unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Achim SCHMILLEN & Matthias UMKEHRER, 2017. "The scars of youth: Effects of early†career unemployment on future unemployment experience," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 156(3-4), pages 465-494, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:intlab:v:156:y:2017:i:3-4:p:465-494
    DOI: 10.1111/ilr.12079
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    Cited by:

    1. Filomena, Mattia & Giorgetti, Isabella & Picchio, Matteo, 2022. "Off to a Bad Start: Youth Nonemployment and Labor Market Outcomes Later in Life," IZA Discussion Papers 15366, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Dorothea HOEHTKER, 2022. "Historical perspectives on the International Labour Review 1921–2021: A century of research on the world of work," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 161(4), pages 12-48, December.
    3. Olga Miroshnichenko & Elena Iakovleva & Natalia Voronova, 2022. "Banking Sector Profitability: Does Household Income Matter?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-19, March.
    4. di Porto, Edoardo & Tealdi, Cristina, 2022. "Heterogeneous Paths to Stability," IZA Discussion Papers 15246, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Achim Schmillen, 2019. "Vocational education, occupational choice and unemployment over the professional career," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 805-838, September.
    6. Anna Adamecz-Volgyi & Yuyan Jiang & Nikki Shure & Gill Wyness, 2023. "Intergenerational educational mobility and the COVID-19 pandemic," CEPEO Working Paper Series 23-08, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Aug 2023.
    7. Miroslav Štefánik & Katarína Karasová & Ivana Studená, 2020. "Can supporting workplace insertions of unemployed recent graduates improve their long-term employability?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 245-265, May.
    8. Anna Manzoni & Irma Mooi-Reci, 2020. "The cumulative disadvantage of unemployment: Longitudinal evidence across gender and age at first unemployment in Germany," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, June.
    9. Lindgren, Petter Y. & Presterud, Ane Ofstad, 2021. "Expanding the Norwegian Armed Forces in the Time of Corona: Benefit-Cost Analysis in the Context of High Unemployment Rate," MPRA Paper 106405, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Nancy Reims & Silke Tophoven, 2021. "Double Burden of Disability and Poverty: Does Vocational Rehabilitation Ease the School‐to‐Work Transition?," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(4), pages 92-102.
    11. Iva Tomic & Ivan Zilic, 2018. "Working for 200 euro? The effects of traineeship reform on labor market outcomes in Croatia," Working Papers 1804, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
    12. Mattia Filomena, 2021. "Unemployment Scarring Effects: A Symposium On Empirical Literature," Working Papers 453, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

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