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Monetary Policy, Price Stability and Output Gap Stabilization

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Author Info
Gaspar, Vitor
Smets, Frank

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Abstract

Using a standard New-Keynesian model, this paper examines three reasons why monetary policy should primarily focus on price stability rather than the stabilization of output around potential, even if there appears to be an exploitable trade-off between the volatility of inflation and that of the output gap. First, we discuss the well-known time-inconsistency problem associated with active output gap stabilization. Increasing the relative weight on inflation stabilization improves the equilibrium outcome. Second, we analyse some of the problems associated with the substantial uncertainty that surrounds estimates of potential output. We argue that focusing on price stability is a robust monetary policy strategy in the face of such uncertainty. Finally, we consider the case where private agents are trying to estimate the inflation generating process using an "ad hoc", but reasonable learning rule. By emphasizing a single goal the central bank facilitates the process of learning, thereby stabilizing both inflation and the output gap. Copyright 2002 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal International Finance.

Volume (Year): 5 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (Summer)
Pages: 193-211
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Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:193-211

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  1. Kerstin Bernoth & Andrew Hughes Hallet & John Lewis, 2008. "Did fiscal policy makers know what they were doing? Reassessing fiscal policy with real-time data," DNB Working Papers 169, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Carl Walsh, 2004. "Implications of a Changing Economic Structure for the Strategy of Monetary Policy," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1023, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2006. "Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 398, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2005. "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 498-527, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Monetary Policy Under Inflation Targeting: An Introduction," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 396, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Kirdan Lees, 2003. "The stabilisation problem: the case of New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  7. Vitor Gaspar & Frank Smets, 2005. "Monetary Policy under Adaptive Learning," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 80, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Real Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 9486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Vitor Gaspar & Frank Smets & David Vestin, 2006. "Adaptive learning, persistence, and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Series 644, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Vitor Gaspar & Frank Smets & David Vestin, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Adaptive Learning," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 183, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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