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Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in the Euro Area?

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  • Florence Huart

Abstract

We test the relationship between the cyclically adjusted primary balance and alternative indicators of cyclical conditions for the euro area and 18 OECD countries over the period 1970-2009. A countercyclical stance of discretionary fiscal policy is found during bad times after 1999 in the euro area as a whole and in a few member countries only (France, Ireland and The Netherlands). It is also associated with high public deficits or low public debts. There is no significant case of procyclical fiscal policy after 1999, neither in good times nor in bad times.
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  • Florence Huart, 2013. "Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in the Euro Area?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 14(1), pages 73-88, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:14:y:2013:i:1:p:73-88
    DOI: 10.1111/geer.12000
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    2. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sow, Moussé, 2017. "Is fiscal policy always counter- (pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 138-146.
    3. Kallal, Sami & Guetat, Imène, 2020. "Fiscal stance, election year and 2007 crisis, evidence from OECD countries (1980–2017)," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    4. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: A meta-analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5a3rl1um0d9rdbe3itnk6f8m89 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Oliver Landmann, 2018. "On the Logic of Fiscal Policy Coordination in a Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 69-87, February.
    7. Carnazza, Giovanni & Renström, Thomas I. & Spataro, Luca, 2023. "Is public debt environmentally friendly? The role of EU fiscal rules on environmental quality: An empirical assessment," FEEM Working Papers 339126, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    8. Christoph Peatz, 2020. "Fiscal Rules in Good Times and Bad," IMK Working Paper 206-2020, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    9. Magdalena Kąkol, 2017. "Designing a fiscal union for the euro area," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 16(4), pages 413-432, December.
    10. Giovanni Carnazza & Thomas I. Renström & Luca Spataro, 2023. "Is public debt environmentally friendly? The role of EU fiscal rules on environmental quality: An empirical assessment," Working Papers 2023.26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    11. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Palazzo, Alessandra Anna & Pierluigi, Beatrice, 2019. "Fiscal activism in the euro area and in other advanced economies: new evidence," Working Paper Series 2344, European Central Bank.
    12. Jesús Ferreiro & Catalina Gálvez & Ana González, 2015. "Fiscal Policies in the European Union during the Crisis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(2), pages 131-155, June.
    13. Alabi, M. K. & Amirthalingam, K., 2020. "Fiscal Policy and the Business Cycle in the West African Monetary Zone," Working Papers 8, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin.
    14. Aldama, Pierre & Creel, Jérôme, 2022. "Real-time fiscal policy responses in the OECD from 1997 to 2018: Procyclical but sustainable?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

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