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Comparing the Effectiveness of Traditional and Time Varying Hedge Ratios Using New Zealand and Australian Debt Futures Contracts

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  • Wilkinson, Katherine J
  • Rose, Lawrence C
  • Young, Martin R

Abstract

We apply cointegration methodology to the New Zealand and Australian 90-day, three-year and 10-year debt and futures markets. We compare traditional methods of calculating hedge ratios with those computed by using univariate and multivariate error correction models. We use out-of-sample forecasting to determine which approach is the most effective. Contrary to recent research, our results show that univariate and multivariate error correlation models do not outperform more traditional methods of constructing hedges. Copyright 1999 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilkinson, Katherine J & Rose, Lawrence C & Young, Martin R, 1999. "Comparing the Effectiveness of Traditional and Time Varying Hedge Ratios Using New Zealand and Australian Debt Futures Contracts," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 34(3), pages 79-94, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:34:y:1999:i:3:p:79-94
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Cumby, Robert E & Figlewski, Stephen, 1988. "Estimation of the Optimal Futures Hedge," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 623-630, November.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Stewart L. Brown, 1985. "A Reformulation of the Portfolio Model of Hedging," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(3), pages 508-512.
    5. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    6. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-126, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Young, Martin & Hogan, Warren & Batten, Jonathan, 2004. "The effectiveness of interest-rate futures contracts for hedging Japanese bonds of different credit quality and duration," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 13-25.
    2. Rozaimah Zainudin & Roselee Shah Shaharudin, 2011. "Multi Mean Garch Approach to Evaluating Hedging Performance in the Crude Palm Oil Futures Market," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 7(1), pages 111-130.
    3. David Shaffer & Andrea DeMaskey, 2005. "Currency Hedging Using the Mean-Gini Framework," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 125-137, September.

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