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The Generation of Stock Market Cycles

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  • Bolten, Steven E
  • Weigand, Robert A

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that the relation between stock market and business cycle dynamics can be conceptualized using a dividend discount model. The interaction of changes in earnings and interest rates throughout the economic cycle are shown to cause changes in the level of stock prices. This implies that monitoring and forecasting these factors can help explain and possibly predict stock price behavior over time. Copyright 1998 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Bolten, Steven E & Weigand, Robert A, 1998. "The Generation of Stock Market Cycles," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 77-83, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:33:y:1998:i:1:p:77-83
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael DeStefano, 2004. "Stock Returns and the Business Cycle," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 527-547, November.
    2. Xuanhua Xu & Bin Pan, 2010. "Capital liquidity and residents’ consumption decision: An asymmetry analysis of economic prosperity," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(4), pages 622-639, December.
    3. Eric Girard & Halil Kiymaz, 2009. "The Risk Factors Associated With Investing In An Emerging Equity Market During The Eu Membership Process," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17.

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