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Does Financial Distress Risk Drive the Momentum Anomaly?

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  • Vineet Agarwal
  • Richard Taffler

Abstract

This paper brings together the evidence on two asset pricing anomalies—continuation of prior returns (momentum) and the market mispricing of distressed firms—using UK data. Our analysis demonstrates both these effects are driven by market underreaction to financial distress risk. In particular, we find momentum is proxying for distress risk, and is largely subsumed by our distress risk factor. We also find, as with US studies, no evidence that size and book‐to‐market (B/M) effects in stock returns are linked to financial distress.

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  • Vineet Agarwal & Richard Taffler, 2008. "Does Financial Distress Risk Drive the Momentum Anomaly?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 37(3), pages 461-484, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:37:y:2008:i:3:p:461-484
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1755-053X.2008.00021.x
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    Cited by:

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    3. Merkle, Christoph & Sextroh, Christoph J., 2021. "Value and momentum from investors’ perspective: Evidence from professionals’ risk-ratings," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 159-178.
    4. Abinzano, Isabel & Gonzalez-Urteaga, Ana & Muga, Luis & Sanchez, Santiago, 2020. "Performance of default-risk measures: the sample matters," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    5. Alan Gregory & Rajesh Tharyan & Ian Tonks, 2013. "More than Just Contrarians: Insider Trading in Glamour and Value Firms," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(4), pages 747-774, September.
    6. Gao, Li & He, Wei & Wang, Qian, 2019. "In search of distress risk in China's stock market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    7. Söhnke M. Bartram & Harald Lohre & Peter F. Pope & Ananthalakshmi Ranganathan, 2021. "Navigating the factor zoo around the world: an institutional investor perspective," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(5), pages 655-703, July.
    8. Chris Stivers & Licheng Sun, 2013. "Market Cycles and the Performance of Relative Strength Strategies," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 263-290, June.
    9. Brooks, Chris & Godfrey, Chris & Hillenbrand, Carola & Money, Kevin, 2016. "Do investors care about corporate taxes?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-248.
    10. Sumaira Ashraf & Elisabete G. S. Félix & Zélia Serrasqueiro, 2022. "Does board committee independence affect financial distress likelihood? A comparison of China with the UK," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 723-761, June.
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    12. Duxbury, Darren & Yao, Songyao, 2017. "Are investors consistent in their trading strategies? An examination of individual investor-level data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 77-87.
    13. Chris Godfrey & Chris Brooks, 2015. "The Negative Credit Risk Premium Puzzle: A Limits to Arbitrage Story," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2015-07, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    14. Nguyet T. M. Nguyen & Abdullah Iqbal & Radha K. Shiwakoti, 2022. "The context of earnings management and its ability to predict future stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 123-169, July.
    15. Boubaker, Sabri & Hamza, Taher & Vidal-García, Javier, 2018. "Financial distress and equity returns: A leverage-augmented three-factor model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-15.
    16. Ahsan Habib & Mabel D' Costa & Hedy Jiaying Huang & Md. Borhan Uddin Bhuiyan & Li Sun, 2020. "Determinants and consequences of financial distress: review of the empirical literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 1023-1075, April.
    17. González-Urteaga, Ana & Muga, Luis & Santamaria, Rafael, 2015. "Momentum and default risk. Some results using the jump component," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-193.
    18. Chan, Chia-Ying & Chou, De-Wai & Lin, Jane-Raung & Liu, Feng-Ying, 2016. "The role of corporate governance in forecasting bankruptcy: Pre- and post-SOX enactment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 166-188.
    19. Bauer, Julian & Agarwal, Vineet, 2014. "Are hazard models superior to traditional bankruptcy prediction approaches? A comprehensive test," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 432-442.
    20. Borisova, Ginka & Fotak, Veljko & Holland, Kateryna & Megginson, William L., 2015. "Government ownership and the cost of debt: Evidence from government investments in publicly traded firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 168-191.
    21. Jungshik Hur & Mahesh Pritamani & Vivek Sharma, 2010. "Momentum and the Disposition Effect: The Role of Individual Investors," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 1155-1176, September.
    22. Cormac O’ Keeffe & Liam A. Gallagher, 2017. "The winner-loser anomaly: recent evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(47), pages 4718-4728, October.
    23. Chau Duong & Gioia Pescetto & Daniel Santamaria, 2014. "How value-glamour investors use financial information: UK evidence of investors' confirmation bias," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 524-549, June.
    24. Ashraf, Sumaira & Félix, Elisabete G.S. & Serrasqueiro, Zélia, 2020. "Development and testing of an augmented distress prediction model: A comparative study on a developed and an emerging market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.

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