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Valuation in US Commercial Real Estate

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Author Info

  • Eric Ghysels
  • Alberto Plazzi
  • Rossen Valkanov

Abstract

"We consider a log-linearized version of a discounted rents model to price commercial real estate as an alternative to traditional hedonic models. First, we verify a key implication of the model, namely, that cap rates forecast commercial real estate returns. We do this using two different methodologies: time series regressions of 21 US metropolitan areas and mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions with aggregate REIT returns. Both approaches confirm that the cap rate is related to fluctuations in future returns. We also investigate the provenance of the predictability. Based on the model, we decompose fluctuations in the cap rate into three parts: (i) local state variables (demographic and local economic variables); (ii) growth in rents; and (iii) an orthogonal part. About 30% of the fluctuation in the cap rate is explained by the local state variables and the growth in rents. We use the cap rate decomposition into our predictive regression and find a positive relation between fluctuations in economic conditions and future returns. However, a larger and significant part of the cap rate predictability is due to the orthogonal part, which is unrelated to fundamentals. This implies that economic conditions, which are also used in hedonic pricing of real estate, cannot fully account for future movements in returns. We conclude that commercial real estate prices are better modelled as financial assets and that the discounted rent model might be more suitable than traditional hedonic models, at least at an aggregate level." Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by European Financial Management Association in its journal European Financial Management.

Volume (Year): 13 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 472-497

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Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:13:y:2007:i:3:p:472-497

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Cited by:
  1. Frank Fabozzi & Robert Shiller & Radu Tunaru, 2009. "Property Derivatives for Managing European Real-Estate Risk," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2652, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2009.
  2. C. Emre Alper & Salih Fendoglu & Burak Saltoglu, 2009. "MIDAS Volatility Forecast Performance Under Market Stress: Evidence from Emerging and Developed Stock Markets," Working Papers 2009/04, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  3. David Ling & Gianluca Marcato & Pat McAllister, 2009. "Dynamics of Asset Prices and Transaction Activity in Illiquid Markets: the Case of Private Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 359-383, October.
  4. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin, 2014. "Can Linear Predictability Models Time Bull and Bear Real Estate Markets? Out-of-Sample Evidence from REIT Portfolios," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 116-164, July.

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