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Does political disintegration lead to trade disintegration?

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Author Info

  • José de Sousa
  • Olivier Lamotte

Abstract

Recent studies have found that political disintegration is a cause of severe and rapid trade disintegration in former Eastern European countries. This finding somewhat conflicts with another strand of the literature highlighting the fact that trade patterns change relatively slowly. This article aims at reconciling the apparent inconsistency between these two results. Using a theoretically grounded gravity equation, we evaluate the intensity of trade between successor states of three former countries (Czechoslovakia, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia) in the period 1993-2001. We find no clear evidence that political disintegration leads to systematic and severe trade disintegration. This result is consistent with the patterns displayed by using simple descriptive statistics, is robust to sensitivity checks, and supports the idea of hysteresis in trade. Copyright (c) 2007 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2007 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development .

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in its journal Economics of Transition.

Volume (Year): 15 (2007)
Issue (Month): (October)
Pages: 825-843

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Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:15:y:2007:i::p:825-843

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Cited by:
  1. Libman, Alexander, 2008. "Informal regionalism in Central Asia: subnational and international levels," MPRA Paper 26417, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. J.M.C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2010. "Currency unions in prospect and retrospect," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28738, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Lavallée, Emmanuelle & Lochard, Julie, 2012. "Independence and trade: new evidence from French colonial trade data," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/10246, Paris Dauphine University.

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