Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Will there be a dollar crisis?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Paul Krugman

Abstract

"Almost everyone believes that the US current account deficit must eventually end, and that this end will involve dollar depreciation. However, many believe that this depreciation will take place gradually. This paper shows that any process of gradual dollar decline fast enough to prevent the accumulation of implausible levels of US external debt would impose capital losses on investors much larger than they currently expect. As a result, there will at some point have to be a 'Wile E. Coyote moment'- a point at which expectations are revised, and the dollar drops sharply. It is much less clear, however, whether this 'crisis' will produce macroeconomic problems." Copyright (c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2007.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2007.00183.x
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by CEPR & CES & MSH in its journal Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 22 (2007)
Issue (Month): (07)
Pages: 435-467

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:bla:ecpoli:v:22:y:2007:i::p:435-467

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 2nd Floor, 53-56 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DG
Phone: +44 (0)20 7183 8801
Fax: +44 (0)20 7183 8820
Email:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0266-4658
More information through EDIRC

Postal: Schackstr. 4, 80539 Munich
Phone: +49 (89) 2180-2748
Fax: +49 (89) 39 73 03
Email:
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/ifoHome/f-about/f2aboutces
More information through EDIRC

Postal: 48 boulevard Jourdan - 75014 Paris
Phone: 01 43 13 63 00
Fax: 01 43 13 63 10
Email:
Web page: http://www.pse.ens.fr/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0266-4658

Related research

Keywords:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00429600 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2011. "Dollar illiquidity and central bank swap arrangements during the global financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2011-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "What Explains Global Exchange Rate Movements During the Financial Crisis?," Working Paper Series 1060, European Central Bank.
  4. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2008. "American And European Financial Shocks: Implications For Chinese Economic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2008-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  5. Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2010. "Asset Prices, News Shocks and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 8080, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "Europe and global imbalances," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 22, pages 519-573, 07.
  7. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2009. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 75-89, September.
  8. Kenneth Rogoff, 2009. "Exchange rates in the modern floating era: what do we really know?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 1-12, April.
  9. Ronald Ian McKinnon, 2007. "The US current account deficits and the dollar standard’s sustainability: A monetary approach," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(4), pages 12-23, 01.
  10. Turhan, Ibrahim M. & Arslan, Yavuz & Kılınç, Mustafa, 2011. "Global Imbalances, Current Account Rebalancing and Exchange Rate Adjustments," MPRA Paper 36475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Hans-Werner Sinn & John Hassler & Gilles Saint-Paul & Giancarlo Corsetti & Michael P. Devereux & Tim Jenkinson & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2009. "Chapter 2: The Financial Crisis," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 59-122, 02.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecpoli:v:22:y:2007:i::p:435-467

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.