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Trade spill-overs of fiscal policy in the European Union: a panel analysis

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Author Info
Roel Beetsma
Massimo Giuliodori
Franc Klaassen

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Abstract

"We explore international spill-overs from fiscal policy shocks via trade in Europe. To assess and quantify the channels through which a fiscal expansion stimulates domestic activity, foreign exports, and foreign output, we estimate a dynamic empirical model of government spending, net taxes, and output, and combine its estimates with a panel model of trade linkages across European countries. The baseline estimates of both models are quite robust and statistically significant. Our results indicate that trade spill-overs of fiscal shocks should be taken into account when assessing the character and intensity of economic integration in the European Union." Copyright CEPR, CES, MSH, 2006.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2006.00168.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by CEPR, CES, MSH in its journal Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 21 (2006)
Issue (Month): 48 (October)
Pages: 639-687
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecpoli:v:21:y:2006:i:48:p:639-687

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Lane, Philip R. & Perotti, Roberto, 1998. "The trade balance and fiscal policy in the OECD," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 887-895, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Richard Clarida & Joe Prendergast, 1999. "Fiscal Stance and the Real Exchange: Some Empirical Estimates," NBER Working Papers 7077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. van Aarle, Bas & Garretsen, Harry & Gobbin, Niko, 2003. "Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in the Euro-area: evidence from a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 609-638. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi, 2003. "Price Dispersions in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 3746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Massimo Giuliodori & Roel Beetsma, 2005. "What are the Trade Spill-Overs from Fiscal Shocks in Europe? An Empirical Analysis**," De Economist, Springer, vol. 153(2), pages 167-197, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Some Stylized Facts on Non-Systematic Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 3635, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis, 2004. "A comparison of autoregressive distributed lag and dynamic OLS cointegration estimators in the case of a serially correlated cointegration error," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 585-617, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy In Good Times And Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Soyoung Kim & Nouriel Roubini, 2004. "Twin Deficit or Twin Divergence? Fiscal Policy, Current Account, and Real Exchange Rate in the US," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 271, Econometric Society.
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  24. Peter CLAEYS, 2004. "Monetary and budgetary policy interaction: an SVAR analysis of stabilisation policies in monetary union," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/22, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tuomas A. Peltonen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Isabel S. Vansteenkiste, 2009. "Fundamentals, Financial Factors and The Dynamics of Investment in Emerging Markets," NIPE Working Papers 19/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  2. Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller, 2009. "Government Spending Shocks in Quarterly and Annual U.S. Time-Series," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse16_2009, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Giovanni Ganelli & Juha Tervala, 2008. "Tax Reforms, "Free Lunches", and "Cheap Lunches" in Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 08/227, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alistair Dieppe & Thomas Warmedinger, 2007. "Modelling intra- and extra-area trade substitution and exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," Working Paper Series 760, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Agustín S. Bénétrix, 2009. "Fiscal Shocks and Real Wages," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp288, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  6. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2007. "On the Relationship between Fiscal Plans in the European Union: An Empirical Analysis Based on Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Arjan Lejour & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2008. "International spillovers of domestic reforms," CPB Discussion Papers 105, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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