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Twin deficits: squaring theory, evidence and common sense

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Author Info
Giancarlo Corsetti
Gernot J. Müller

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Abstract

"Simple accounting suggests that shocks to the government budget move the current account in the same direction, and this 'twin deficits' intuition leads many observers to call for fiscal consolidation in the US as a necessary measure to reduce the large external imbalance of this country. The response of other macroeconomic variables to budget developments, however, has important implications for 'twin deficits' and for this policy prescription. Focusing on the international transmission of fiscal policy shocks via terms of trade changes, we show that the likelihood and magnitude of twin deficits increases with the degree of openness of an economy, and decreases with the persistence of fiscal shocks. We take this insight to the data and investigate the transmission of fiscal shocks in a vector autoregression (VAR) model estimated for Australia, Canada, the UK and the US. We find that in less open countries the external impact of shocks to either government spending or budget deficits is limited, while private investment responds in line with our theoretical prediction. These results suggest that a fiscal retrenchment in the US may have a limited impact on its current external deficit." Copyright CEPR, CES, MSH, 2006.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2006.00167.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by CEPR, CES, MSH in its journal Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 21 (2006)
Issue (Month): 48 (October)
Pages: 597-638
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecpoli:v:21:y:2006:i:48:p:597-638

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  1. Rabah Arezki & Fuad Hasanov, 2009. "Global Imbalances and Petrodollars," IMF Working Papers 09/89, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. P. Jacob & G. Peersman, 2008. "Dissecting the Dynamics of the US Trade Balance in an Estimated Equilibrium Model," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/544, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  3. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship: A Panel Data Diagnostic," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Agustín S. Bénétrix, 2009. "Fiscal Shocks and Real Wages," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp288, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  5. Horag Choi & Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Endogenous Discounting, the World Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account," NBER Working Papers 13571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. António Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 2008/56, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Marcel Fratzscher & Luciana Juvenal & Lucio Sarno, 2007. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," Working Paper Series 790, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Bems, Rudolfs & Dedola, Luca & Smets, Frank, 2007. "US Imbalances: The Role of Technology and Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6110, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Morten O. Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2007. "Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/23, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  10. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality Between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU," Working Papers 2009/02, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
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