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Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts

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Author Info
Lars Jonung
Martin Larch

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Abstract

"We point out that official forecasts of output dynamics are crucial to the assessment of cyclically adjusted budget balances, and provide evidence that in some euro-area countries biased forecasts have played a thus far neglected role in generating excessive deficits. We suggest that the forecast bias may be politically motivated, and that forecasts produced by an independent authority would be better than in-house Ministry of Finance forecasts for the purpose of monitoring budget formation and budget outcomes." Copyright CEPR, CES, MSH, 2006.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2006.00162.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by CEPR, CES, MSH in its journal Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 21 (2006)
Issue (Month): 47 (07)
Pages: 491-534
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecpoli:v:21:y:2006:i:47:p:491-534

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  1. Carlos Marinheiro, 2008. "The stability and growth pact, fiscal policy institutions and stabilization in Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 189-207, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Carlo Favero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the Euro Area," Working Papers 298, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  3. David Hauner & Kornélia Krajnyák & Martin Mühleisen & Bennett Sutton & Stephan Danninger, 2005. "How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?," IMF Working Papers 05/66, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kerstin Bernoth & Andrew Hughes Hallet & John Lewis, 2008. "Did fiscal policy makers know what they were doing? Reassessing fiscal policy with real-time data," DNB Working Papers 169, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Thierry Warin, 2005. "Stability and Growth Pact: An Index to Trigger an Early Warning Earlier?," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0502, Middlebury College, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Anthony Annett, 2007. "Toward a Robust Fiscal Framework for Iceland: Motivation and Practical Suggestions," IMF Working Papers 07/235, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lars Jonung, 2006. "Comments on J. Christl: “Regional currency arrangements: insights from Europeâ€\x9D," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 221-224, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Josef Christl, 2006. "Regional Currency Arrangements: Insights from Europe," Working Papers 125, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  9. Marco Buti & Martin Larch & Fabio Balboni, 2009. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the EMU when cyclical conditions are uncertain," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 21-44, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2008. "Fiscal Adjustment to Cyclical Developments in the OECD: An Empirical Analysis Based on Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Anthony Annett, 2006. "Enforcement and the Stability and Growth Pact: How Fiscal Policy Did and Did Not Change Under Europe's Fiscal Framework," IMF Working Papers 06/116, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Josef Christl, 2006. "Regional Currency Arrangements: Insights from Europe," Working Papers 42, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  13. Assar Lindbeck & Dirk Niepelt, 2005. "Improving the SGP: Taxes and Delegation rather than Fines," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Buti, Marco & Sapir, André, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in Europe: The Past and Future of EMU Rules from the Perspective of Musgrave and Buchanan," CEPR Discussion Papers 5830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Wierts, Peter, 2009. "Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy in the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 7285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2008. "Fiscal policy in real time," Working Paper Series 919, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2007. "On the Relationship between Fiscal Plans in the European Union: An Empirical Analysis Based on Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Álvaro Pina & Nuno Venes, 2007. "The Political Economy of EDP Fiscal Forecasts: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers 2007/23, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
  19. G. A. Christodoulakis & E. C. Mamatzakis, 2009. "Assessing the prudence of economic forecasts in the EU," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 583-606. [Downloadable!]
  20. Thiess Buettner & Björn Kauder, 2009. "Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  21. Buti, Marco & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Franco, Daniele, 2005. "The stability pact pains : a forward-looking assessment of the reform debate," Discussion Paper 101, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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