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Evaluation of currency regimes: the unique role of sudden stops

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Author Info
Assaf Razin
Yona Rubinstein

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Abstract

"This paper tackles two established puzzles in international macroeconomics literature. The first is the lack of systematic differences in the macroeconomic performance across exchange rate regimes. The second is the absence of a clear empirical relationship between macroeconomic performance and capital-account liberalization. We suggest that these negative findings may be due to empirical methods that fail to account for a latent economic 'crisis state', influenced by exchange-rate and capital account regimes, and to allow that latent variable to influence the growth effects of policy regimes. In practice, we model and estimate the latent state of the economy as a crisis probability. Our proposed framework of analysis allows exchange rate and capital-market liberalization regimes to have both a direct effect on short-term growth, and an indirect effect on growth that is channelled through their effects on the crisis probability. The empirical decomposition of the total effect into two conflicting effects helps resolve the puzzles." Copyright © CEPR, CES, MSH, 2006.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2006.00155.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by CEPR, CES, MSH in its journal Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 21 (2006)
Issue (Month): 45 (01)
Pages: 119-152
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecpoli:v:21:y:2006:i:45:p:119-152

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2000. "Balance SHeet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 8060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kaplan, Ethan & Rodrik, Dani, 2001. "Did the Malaysian Capital Controls Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2754, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann & Lorenza Martinez, 2004. "The Positive Link Between Financial Liberalization, Growth and Crises," NBER Working Papers 10293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Veronesi, Pietro, 2004. "The Peso problem hypothesis and stock market returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 707-725, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kristin J. Forbes, 2005. "The Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No Free Lunch," NBER Working Papers 11372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective Are Capital Controls?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 65-84, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Philip R. Lane & G Milesi-Feretti, 2004. "Financial Globalization and Exchange Rates," CEP Discussion Papers dp0662, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Rodrik, Dani, 2002. "Feasible Globalizations," Working Paper Series rwp02-029, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
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  16. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Inci Ötker & Akira Ariyoshi & Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko & Karl Friedrich Habermeier & Andrei Kirilenko & Bernard Laurens, 2000. "Capital Controls: Country Experiences with Their Use and Liberalization," IMF Occasional Papers 190, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  19. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Carlos Arteta & Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "When Does Capital Account Liberalization Help More than It Hurts?," NBER Working Papers 8414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Rethinking Multiple Equilibria in Macroeconomic Modelling," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1260, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "Currency boards: More than a quick fix?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 269-335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Assaf Razin, 2004. "The Contribution of FDI Flows to Domestic Investment in Capacity, and Vice Versa," NBER Chapters, in: Growth and Productivity in East Asia, NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 13, pages 149-176 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  25. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization, Institutions and Financial Development: Cross Country Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Itay Goldstein & Assaf Razin & Hui Tong, 2008. "Liquidity, Institutional Quality and the Composition of International Equity Outflows," NBER Working Papers 13723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Aaron Tornell, . "Decomposing the Effects of Financial Liberalization: Crises vs. Growth (March 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 408, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2006. "Decomposing the Effects of Financial Liberalization: Crises vs. Growth," NBER Working Papers 12806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. George Tavlas & Harris Dellas & Alan Stockman, 2008. "The Classification and Perfomance of Alternative Exchange-Rate Systems," Working Papers 90, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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