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Deflation and monetary policy in a historical perspective: remembering the past or being condemned to repeat it?

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  • Michael Bordo
  • Andrew Filardo

Abstract

"Inflation is currently low and stable in industrialized countries, but might deflation replace inflation as a major policy concern? We present a broad cross-country historical study of deflation over the past two centuries in order to shed light on current policy challenges. In the light of the relevant theoretical approaches, we empirically characterize 'good, bad and ugly' deflations, assess similarities between the current low-inflation environment and that of the gold standard period, and discuss lessons from the historical record as to policies to escape undesirable deflation and the relative merits of interest rate and monetary instruments." Copyright � CEPR, CES, MSH, 2005.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by CEPR & CES & MSH in its journal Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 20 (2005)
Issue (Month): 44 (October)
Pages: 799-844

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecpoli:v:20:y:2005:i:44:p:799-844

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References

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  1. Ben S. Bernanke, 1994. "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," NBER Working Papers 4814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000. "How Should Monetary Policy be Conducted in an Era of Price Stability?," NBER Working Papers 7516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Michael D. Bordo & Ehsan U. Choudhri & Anna J. Schwartz, 1999. "Was Expansionary Monetary Policy Feasible During the Great Contraction? An Examination of the Gold Standard Constraint," NBER Working Papers 7125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kenneth J. McLaughlin, 1999. "Are nominal wage changes skewed away from wage cuts?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 117-132.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Claudio Morana, 2004. "The Japanese Deflation: Has It Had Real Effects? Could It Have Been Avoided?," ICER Working Papers 29-2004, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  2. Michael D. Bordo, 2009. "A Historical Perspective on the Crisis of 2007–08," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 548, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Benjamin Pugsley, 2006. "The Mistake of 1937: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 151-190, December.
  4. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, Winter.
  5. Michael D. Bordo, 2008. "An Historical Perspective on the Crisis of 2007-2008," NBER Working Papers 14569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2007. "The Credibility Problem Revisited: Thirty Years on from Kydland and Prescott," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1807, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  7. Goetz von Peter, 2005. "Debt-deflation: concepts and a stylised model," BIS Working Papers 176, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators for Asset Price Booms," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-19, June.
  9. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach & Toshitaka Sekine, 2007. "Monetary Factors and Inflation in Japan," Working Papers 2007-13, Swiss National Bank.
  10. Rockoff, Hugh & White, Eugene N., 2012. "Monetary Regimes and Policy on a Global Scale: The Oeuvre of Michael D. Bordo," MPRA Paper 49672, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2013.
  11. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
  12. Michael D. Bordo & Hugh Rockoff, 2013. "Not Just the Great Contraction: Friedman and Schwartz’s A Monetary History of the United States 1867 to 1960," NBER Working Papers 18828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ulrich van Suntum & Metin Kaptan & Cordelius Ilgmann, 2011. "Reducing the Lower Bound on Market Interest Rates," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 133-146, September.
  14. Goetz von Peter, 2005. "Debt-Deflation: Concepts, and a Stylised Model," Macroeconomics 0505001, EconWPA.
  15. Beckworth, David, 2007. "The postbellum deflation and its lessons for today," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 195-214, August.

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