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Obstacles to disinflation: what is the role of fiscal expectations?

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Author Info
Oya Celasun
R. Gaston Gelos
Alessandro Prati

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Abstract

"Persistently high expected inflation often makes it difficult for policy-makers to recover from inflationary episodes without substantial output losses. Using survey data from eleven disinflation episodes, we can assess whether the more or less sluggish decline of inflation rates towards lower target levels is related to backward-looking pricing behavior or to imperfect credibility of the stabilization efforts. We find that expectations of future inflation play a much more important role than past inflation in shaping the inflation process. Second, we find that an improvement in various measures of fiscal balances significantly reduces inflation expectations. This evidence suggests that, when attempting to stabilize inflation, priority should be given to building fiscal credibility." Copyright © CEPR, CES, MSH, 2004.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2004.00129.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by CEPR, CES, MSH in its journal Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 19 (2004)
Issue (Month): 40 (October)
Pages: 441-481
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecpoli:v:19:y:2004:i:40:p:441-481

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Buiter, Willem H & Grafe, Clemens, 2001. "No Pain, No Gain? The Simple Analytics of Efficient Disinflation in Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3038, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Esteban Jadresic, 2000. "Can Staggered Price Setting Explain Short-Run Inflation Dynamics?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0872, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Haan, Jakob de, 2001. "Inflation in developing countries: does Central Bank independence matter?," CCSO Working Papers 200101, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Oya Celasun, 2003. "Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization," IMF Working Papers 03/151, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Oya Celasun & Gaston R. Gelos & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?," IMF Working Papers 03/49, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1991. "Credibility and Stabilization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 837-50, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Catao, Luis A.V. & Terrones, Marco E., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 529-554, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Ball, Laurence, 1995. "Disinflation with imperfect credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 5-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy In Good Times And Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Drazen, Allan & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990. "Inflationary Consequences of Anticipated Macroeconomic Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 147-64, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martin Cerisola & R. Gaston Gelos, 2005. "What Drives Inflation Expectations in Brazil? An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/109, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Joerg Bibow, 2006. "Inflation Persistence and Tax-Push Inflation in Germany and in the Euro Area: A Symptom of Macroeconomic Mismanagement?," IMK Studies 01-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nicoletta Batini & Douglas Laxton, 2006. "Under What Conditions Can Inflation Targeting Be Adopted? The Experience of Emerging Markets," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 406, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alessandro Rebucci & Marco Rossi, 2004. "Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets: A Bayesian Approach with an Application to Turkey," IMF Working Papers 04/208, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. James Y. Yao & Nathaniel John Porter, 2005. "'Inflation Targeting Lite' in Small Open Economies: The Case of Mauritius," IMF Working Papers 05/172, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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