IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecorec/v96y2020i314p331-349.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Jump Risk in the US Financial Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Dinesh Gajurel
  • Mardi Dungey
  • Wenying Yao
  • Nagaratnam Jeyasreedharan

Abstract

In this paper we establish empirical evidence for the relationship between the systematic jump betas of financial institutions and two types of systemic risk index: a capital shortfall index and a interconnectedness index. Using high‐frequency data for US financial sector stocks, we show that equity market jumps are positively related to capital shortfall and negatively related to interconnectedness. Higher potential capital shortfall measures of systemic risk lead to a greater sensitivity to systematic jumps, while increased interconnectedness leads to greater resistance. Our findings, along with indicators such as size and leverage, provide a means to identify the possible trade‐offs that regulators might face when assessing the systemic risks of financial institutions, particularly in the context of the cross‐multiple influences within the sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Dinesh Gajurel & Mardi Dungey & Wenying Yao & Nagaratnam Jeyasreedharan, 2020. "Jump Risk in the US Financial Sector," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 331-349, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:96:y:2020:i:314:p:331-349
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-4932.12565
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.12565
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1475-4932.12565?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ana-Maria Dumitru & Giovanni Urga, 2011. "Identifying Jumps in Financial Assets: A Comparison Between Nonparametric Jump Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 242-255, October.
    2. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2006. "Econometrics of Testing for Jumps in Financial Economics Using Bipower Variation," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30.
    3. Hossein Asgharian & Mia Holmfeldt & Marcus Larson, 2011. "An event study of price movements following realized jumps," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 933-946.
    4. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling, and Forecasting of Return Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 701-720, November.
    5. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rigobon, Roberto, 2018. "Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 150-181.
    6. De Jonghe, Olivier, 2010. "Back to the basics in banking? A micro-analysis of banking system stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 387-417, July.
    7. Andrew J. Patton & Michela Verardo, 2012. "Does Beta Move with News? Firm-Specific Information Flows and Learning about Profitability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(9), pages 2789-2839.
    8. Dungey, Mardi & Luciani, Matteo & Veredas, David, 2018. "Systemic risk in the US: Interconnectedness as a circuit breaker," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 305-315.
    9. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2010. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 305-344, January.
    10. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Jean Jacod, 2012. "Analyzing the Spectrum of Asset Returns: Jump and Volatility Components in High Frequency Data," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1007-1050, December.
    11. Chatrath, Arjun & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Villupuram, Sriram, 2014. "Currency jumps, cojumps and the role of macro news," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 42-62.
    12. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti, 2010. "An Overview of the Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions-super-," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(s1), pages 1-26.
    13. Xin Huang & George Tauchen, 2005. "The Relative Contribution of Jumps to Total Price Variance," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 456-499.
    14. Giacomo Bormetti & Lucio Maria Calcagnile & Michele Treccani & Fulvio Corsi & Stefano Marmi & Fabrizio Lillo, 2015. "Modelling systemic price cojumps with Hawkes factor models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 1137-1156, July.
    15. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    16. Dungey, Mardi & Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan & Yang, Minxian, 2015. "Endogenous crisis dating and contagion using smooth transition structural GARCH," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 71-79.
    17. Yan, Shu, 2011. "Jump risk, stock returns, and slope of implied volatility smile," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 216-233, January.
    18. Gilder, Dudley & Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J., 2014. "Cojumps in stock prices: Empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 443-459.
    19. Bollerslev, Tim & Todorov, Viktor & Li, Sophia Zhengzi, 2013. "Jump tails, extreme dependencies, and the distribution of stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 307-324.
    20. Dungey, Mardi & Gajurel, Dinesh, 2014. "Equity market contagion during the global financial crisis: Evidence from the world's eight largest economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 161-177.
    21. Scott E. Harrington, 2009. "The Financial Crisis, Systemic Risk, and the Future of Insurance Regulation," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 785-819, December.
    22. John H. Boyd & Gianni De Nicoló, 2005. "The Theory of Bank Risk Taking and Competition Revisited," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1329-1343, June.
    23. Alexeev, Vitali & Dungey, Mardi & Yao, Wenying, 2017. "Time-varying continuous and jump betas: The role of firm characteristics and periods of stress," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-19.
    24. Bjørn Eraker, 2004. "Do Stock Prices and Volatility Jump? Reconciling Evidence from Spot and Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1367-1404, June.
    25. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    26. Yener Altunbas & Santiago Carbo & Edward P.M. Gardener & Philip Molyneux, 2007. "Examining the Relationships between Capital, Risk and Efficiency in European Banking," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(1), pages 49-70, January.
    27. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
    28. Christian Brownlees & Robert F. Engle, 2017. "SRISK: A Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 48-79.
    29. Nikola Tarashev & Kostas Tsatsaronis & Claudio Borio, 2016. "Risk Attribution Using the Shapley Value: Methodology and Policy Applications," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1189-1213.
    30. Hang Bai & Kewei Hou & Howard Kung & Lu Zhang, 2015. "The CAPM Strikes Back? An Investment Model with Disasters," NBER Working Papers 21016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Tauchen, George & Zhou, Hao, 2011. "Realized jumps on financial markets and predicting credit spreads," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 102-118, January.
    32. Mandelker, Gershon N. & Rhee, S. Ghon, 1984. "The Impact of the Degrees of Operating and Financial Leverage on Systematic Risk of Common Stock," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 45-57, March.
    33. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2007. "CAPM over the long run: 1926-2001," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-40, January.
    34. Pedro Santa-Clara & Shu Yan, 2010. "Crashes, Volatility, and the Equity Premium: Lessons from S&P 500 Options," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 435-451, May.
    35. Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 987-1035, June.
    36. Simon Kwan & Robert Eisenbeis, 1997. "Bank Risk, Capitalization, and Operating Efficiency," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 117-131, October.
    37. Robert J. Barro, 2009. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264, March.
    38. Todorov, Viktor & Bollerslev, Tim, 2010. "Jumps and betas: A new framework for disentangling and estimating systematic risks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 220-235, August.
    39. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    40. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti, 2010. "An Overview of the Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, March.
    41. Bollerslev, Tim & Li, Sophia Zhengzi & Todorov, Viktor, 2016. "Roughing up beta: Continuous versus discontinuous betas and the cross section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 464-490.
    42. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:2:p:242-255 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Markus Pelger, 2020. "Understanding Systematic Risk: A High‐Frequency Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 2179-2220, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dinesh Gajurel & Biplob Chowdhury, 2021. "Realized Volatility, Jump and Beta: evidence from Canadian Stock Market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(55), pages 6376-6397, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chowdhury, Biplob & Jeyasreedharan, Nagaratnam, 2019. "An empirical examination of the jump and diffusion aspects of asset pricing: Japanese evidence," Working Papers 2019-02, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    2. Dinesh Gajurel & Biplob Chowdhury, 2021. "Realized Volatility, Jump and Beta: evidence from Canadian Stock Market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(55), pages 6376-6397, November.
    3. Chowdhury, Biplob & Jeyasreedharan, Nagaratnam & Dungey, Mardi, 2018. "Quantile relationships between standard, diffusion and jump betas across Japanese banks," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-47.
    4. Yao, Wenying & Tian, Jing, 2015. "The role of intra-day volatility pattern in jump detection: empirical evidence on how financial markets respond to macroeconomic news announcements," Working Papers 2015-05, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    5. Wenying Yao & Mardi Dungey & Vitali Alexeev, 2020. "Modelling Financial Contagion Using High Frequency Data," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 314-330, September.
    6. Gajurel, Dinesh & Chowdhury, Biplob, 2020. "Realized volatility, jump and beta: evidence from Canadian stock market," Working Papers 2020-11, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    7. Johnson, James A. & Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Paye, Bradley S., 2022. "Jumps in stock prices: New insights from old data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Bollerslev, Tim & Li, Sophia Zhengzi & Todorov, Viktor, 2016. "Roughing up beta: Continuous versus discontinuous betas and the cross section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 464-490.
    9. Tim Bollerslev & Sophia Zhengzi Li & Viktor Todorov, 2014. "Roughing up Beta: Continuous vs. Discontinuous Betas, and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," CREATES Research Papers 2014-48, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    10. Vitali Alexeev & Mardi Dungey & Wenying Yao, 2016. "Continuous and Jump Betas: Implications for Portfolio Diversification," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-15, June.
    11. Mohammad Abu Sayeed & Mardi Dungey & Wenying Yao, 2018. "High-frequency Characterisation of Indian Banking Stocks," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2_suppl), pages 213-238, August.
    12. Maneesoonthorn, Worapree & Martin, Gael M. & Forbes, Catherine S., 2020. "High-frequency jump tests: Which test should we use?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 478-487.
    13. Bianchi, Francesco, 2008. "Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 20831, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jan 2010.
    14. Bianchi, Francesco, 2020. "The Great Depression and the Great Recession: A view from financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 240-261.
    15. Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Gael M. Martin & Catherine S. Forbes, 2017. "Dynamic asset price jumps and the performance of high frequency tests and measures," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    16. Ahdi Noomen Ajmi & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2021. "Revisiting the Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Tunisia: Carbon Dioxide vs. Ecological Footprint," Working Papers 202171, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Gael M Martin & Catherine S Forbes, 2018. "Dynamic price jumps: The performance of high frequency tests and measures, and the robustness of inference," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/18, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    18. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
    19. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3449-3469, August.
    20. Eric Jacquier & Cedric Okou, 2013. "Disentangling Continuous Volatility from Jumps in Long-Run Risk-Return Relationships," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-14, CIRANO.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:96:y:2020:i:314:p:331-349. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esausea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.