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Ageing, Optimal National Saving and Future Living Standards in Australia

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  • Guest, Ross S
  • McDonald, Ian M

Abstract

Making allowance for the ageing structure of the population, this paper calculates the levels of optimal national saving and future living ,standards for Australia for the period 1999-2050. For this period, the optimal saving response to the ageing of the Australian population is for national saving to increase from its current level by 2.7 per cent of GDP by the year 2017 and then to decline to the year 2050. The implied growth of living standards is 1.20 per cent per year. Reduced immigration would reduce the rate of growth of living standards but reduced fertility would not. Copyright 2001 by The Economic Society of Australia.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 77 (2001)
Issue (Month): 237 (June)
Pages: 117-34

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:77:y:2001:i:237:p:117-34

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Cited by:
  1. Guest, Ross S., 2006. "Population ageing, capital mobility and optimal saving," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 89-102, January.
  2. Guest, Ross S. & McDonald, Ian M., 2001. "The volatility of the socially optimal level of investment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 901-928, November.
  3. Ross S. Guest & Ian M. McDonald, 2007. "Other-regarding Uzawa Preferences and Living Standard Catch-up," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_034, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  4. John Freebairn, 2007. "Some Policy Issues in Providing Retirement Incomes," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2007n06, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  5. Bell, William Paul, 2005. "An evaluation of policies to reduce fiscal pressure induced by population ageing in Australia," MPRA Paper 38286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Fertility and output in Europe: new evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 143-156, March.
  7. Guest, R.S. & McDonald, I.M., 2004. "Demographic Transition and Optimal Saving in Four Asian Countries," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(1), pages 1-13, March.
  8. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
  9. Ross S. Ross S. & Ian M. McDonald, 2002. "Would a Decrease in Fertility Be a Threat to Living Standards in Australia?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 35(1), pages 29-44.
  10. Hasan, Mohammad S., 2010. "The long-run relationship between population and per capita income growth in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 355-372, May.
  11. Gustav Feichtinger & Alexia Prskawetz & Vladimir M. Veliov, 2002. "Age-structured optimal control in population economics," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-045, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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