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Do Leading Indicators Really Predict Australian Business Cycle Turning Points?

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Author Info
Layton, Allan P
Abstract

In earlier work, Layton (1994) demonstrated how Hamilton's (1991) quasi-Bayesian, Markov (constant transition probability parameters), regime-switching model could be used to characterize the nature of the Australian business cycle. However, Diebold, Lee and Weinbach (1992), Durland and McCurdy (1994), and Filardo (1994) have suggested approaches which allow the Markov transition probabilities to be non-constant. In this paper the Australian coincident index is employed as a summative measure of the business cycle and the transition probability parameters are allowed to vary. In particular, leading and long leading indexes are used as putative determinants of these transition probabilities to test whether, in this framework, these indexes systematically influence the probability of phase changes in the business cycle. Copyright 1997 by The Economic Society of Australia.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 73 (1997)
Issue (Month): 222 (September)
Pages: 258-69
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:73:y:1997:i:222:p:258-69

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  1. Dr Alicia Rambaldi & Bortolussi, 2004. "Interactions of Source State and Market Price Trends for Cattle of Korean, Japanese and USA Market Specifications," Discussion Papers Series 334, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2004. "Does the Term Structure Predict Australia's Future Output Growth?," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 121-44, September. [Downloadable!]
  3. Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 2000. "Forecasting Australian Economic Activity Using Leading Indicators," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-02, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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