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Election Surprises and Exchange Rate Uncertainty

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  • M. R. Garfinkel
  • A. Glazer
  • J. Lee

Abstract

This papers shows that unexpected election results explain some of the unexpected variation in foreign exchange rates. The result is based on an event study which examines the behavior of the size of forecast errors implied by futures contracts for exchange rates around elections. Though elections can produce large unexpected effects on exchange rates, the effects on forecast errors are short-lived. [ JEL codes: D72, F31.] Copyright 1999 Blackwell Publishers Ltd..

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Economics and Politics.

Volume (Year): 11 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
Pages: 255-274

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:11:y:1999:i:3:p:255-274

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0954-1985

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Cited by:
  1. Markus Haberer, 2004. "Might a Securities Transactions Tax Mitigate Excess Volatility?: Some Evidence From the Literature," CoFE Discussion Paper 04-06, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  2. Shi-jie Jiang & Matthew Chang & I-chan Chiang, 2012. "Price discovery in stock index: an ARDL-ECM approach in Taiwan case," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1227-1238, June.
  3. Cermeño, Rodolfo & Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin, 2010. "Elections, exchange rates and reform in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 166-174, July.
  4. Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2001. "A model of exchange rate crises with partisan governments," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8394, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  5. Berlemann, Michael & Markwardt, Gunther, 2006. "Variable rational partisan cycles and electoral uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 874-886, December.

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