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Quantifying “Dog Days”

Author

Listed:
  • Janine M. Dixon
  • Peter B. Dixon
  • James A. Giesecke
  • Maureen T. Rimmer

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="ecpa12080-abs-0001"> In Dog Days, Garnaut (2013) portrays Australia's immediate future as characterised by the end of the mining investment boom, declining terms of trade, a decline in labour input per head of population, slow multifactor productivity growth, fiscal consolidation and rising world interest rates. We quantify the consequences of these developments using a detailed general equilibrium model. Consistent with Garnaut, we find that wage and demand restraint will be required to steer Australia through the difficult period ahead. Public understanding of Dog Days will help move expectations to match current unfavourable conditions and thereby promote an orderly adjustment with minimum damage to employment and standards of living.

Suggested Citation

  • Janine M. Dixon & Peter B. Dixon & James A. Giesecke & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2014. "Quantifying “Dog Days”," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 33(3), pages 203-219, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econpa:v:33:y:2014:i:3:p:203-219
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecpa.2014.33.issue-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Dodo J. Thampapillai & Yvonne Jie Chen & Christopher Ivo Bacani & Omer Baris, 2016. "New Estimates of Factor Income Shares in Central Asian Economies," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(3), pages 282-291, September.
    2. Gordon Menzies & Peter Dixon & Maureen Rimmer, 2016. "In Praise of (Some) Red Tape: A New Approach to Regulation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(299), pages 631-647, December.
    3. Marc Jim M. Mariano & James A. Giesecke, 2016. "Forecasting development outcomes under alternative surplus labour assumptions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(42), pages 4019-4032, September.
    4. Peter B. Dixon & James. A. Giesecke & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2015. "Superannuation within a financial CGE model of the Australian economy," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-253, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    5. Janine Dixon, 2016. "Workforce Adaptation to the Cessation of Motor Vehicle Manufacturing in Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(4), pages 301-315, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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