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Aggregate Investment and Political Instability: An Econometric Investigation

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Author Info
Nauro F. Campos
Jeffrey B. Nugent

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Abstract

Although in theory the long-run effect of uncertainty on investment is ambiguous, available econometric evidence widely supports a negative association between aggregate investment and political instability. A shortcoming of this body of evidence is that it has failed to investigate the existence and direction of causality between these two variables. This paper fills this gap by testing for such causal and negative long-run relationship between political instability and investment. We find there is a causal relation going from instability to investment, but it is positive and particularly strong in low-income countries. This finding is robust to various sensitivity checks. Copyright (c) The London School of Economics and Political Science 2003.

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Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 70 (2003)
Issue (Month): 279 (08)
Pages: 533-549
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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:70:y:2003:i:279:p:533-549

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  1. Ronen Bar-El, 2009. "Dictators, development, and the virtue of political instability," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 29-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Rune Jansen Hagen & Gaute Torsvik, 2007. "Irreversible Investments, Dynamic Inconsistency and Policy Convergence," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pablo Acosta & Andrés Loza, 2005. "Short and long run determinants of private investment in Argentina," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 389-406, November. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ossama Mikhail, 2004. "Economic Freedom and The Business Cycle: The Egyptian Experience," Macroeconomics 0402002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alberto Chong & Mark Gradstein, 2009. "Volatility and firm growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 1-25, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Andrew Williams & Abu Siddique, 2008. "The use (and abuse) of governance indicators in economics: a review," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-175, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Roberto Pereira Guimarães & Olaf Unteroberdoerster, 2006. "What's Driving Private Investment in Malaysia? Aggregate Trends and Firm-Level Evidence," IMF Working Papers 06/190, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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