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The Classic European Hyperinflations Revisited: Testing the Cagan Model Using a Cointegrated VAR Approach

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  • Engsted, Tom

Abstract

The Cagan model of hyperinflation under rational expectations, no bubbles and stationary velocity shocks has the implication that real balances cointegrate with money growth. In a reexamination of the classic European hyperinflations, I find support for this cointegrating property, which gives evidence against the assumption made in most previous studies that velocity shocks follow a random walk. Based on a cointegrated VAR model, I reject statistically, for four of the six hyperinflations, the exact rational expectations Cagan model; but at the same time I find evidence of a substantial forward-looking element in agents' demand for real balances, in the sense that a large part of the predictable movement in money growth is incorporated in agents' demand for money. Copyright 1994 by The London School of Economics and Political Science.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 61 (1994)
Issue (Month): 243 (August)
Pages: 331-43

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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:61:y:1994:i:243:p:331-43

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Cited by:
  1. Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2000. "A Multivariate I(2) Cointegration Analysis Of German Hyperinflation," Working Papers 0001, University of Crete, Department of Economics, revised 00 Jul 2001.
  2. Engsted, Tom, 2003. "Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: comment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 441-451, August.
  3. Topal, yavuz Han, 2013. "On the tracks of Zimbabwe’s Hyperinflation: A Quantitative Investigation," MPRA Paper 56117, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Mladenovic, Zorica & Petrovic, Pavle, 2010. "Cagan's paradox and money demand in hyperinflation: Revisited at daily frequency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1369-1384, November.
  5. Chan, Hing Lin & Lee, Shu Kam & Woo, Kai-Yin, 2003. "An empirical investigation of price and exchange rate bubbles during the interwar European hyperinflations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 327-344.
  6. Engsted, Tom, 1998. "Money Demand During Hyperinflation: Cointegration, Rational Expectations, and the Importance of Money Demand Shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 533-552, July.
  7. Engsted, Tom, 2002. " Measures of Fit for Rational Expectations Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 301-55, July.
  8. Atanas Christev, 2005. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand (or Cagan Revisited): Some New Empirical Evidence from the 1990s," CERT Discussion Papers 0507, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
  9. Choudhry, T., 1998. "Another visit to the Cagan model of money demand: the latest Russian experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 355-376, April.
  10. Caplan, B., 2002. "How does war shock the economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-162, April.
  11. Engsted, Tom, 1996. "The monetary model of the exchange rate under hyperinflation: New encouraging evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 37-44, April.

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