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Finance-Growth Nexus and the P-bias: Evidence from OECD Countries

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Franz R. Hahn

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Abstract

Recent studies provide new empirical evidence confirming that financial development is linked to economic growth in OECD countries. Using new dynamic panel regression techniques, these appraisals indicate that within the group of high-income countries stock market size as a measure of financial advancement contributes significantly to overall economic activity. Applying the same advanced techniques, this paper questions this conclusion by showing that the findings of these studies seem to be not only not robust with respect to adding new observations but also likely to be plagued by a severe price bias which belittles the information content of the used financial indicator (stock market capitalization). We provide evidence that anticipative price effects (i.e. expectations of future growth, reflected in current stock prices) may be driving the statistical relationship between stock market activities and economic growth in high-income countries to a much larger extent than recent analyses of the finance- growth link in OECD countries suggest. Copyright Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, 2005

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Article provided by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA in its journal Economic Notes.

Volume (Year): 34 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 113-126
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:34:y:2005:i:1:p:113-126

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta & Ignazio Visco, 2000. "Knowledge, Technology and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 259, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 2001. "Financial Systems, Industrial Structure, and Growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 467-482.
  4. Pagano, Marco, 1993. "Financial markets and growth: An overview," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 613-622, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Javier Andrés & Ignacio Hernando & J. David López-Salido, 1999. "The Role of the Financial System in the Growth-Inflation Link: the OECD Experience," Banco de España Working Papers 9920, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta, 2001. "Does Human Capital Matter for Growth in OECD Countries?: Evidence from Pooled Mean-Group Estimates," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 282, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Pesaran, H. & Smith, R. & Im, K.S., 1995. "Dynamic Linear Models for Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9503, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. ?gel de la Fuente & Rafael Dom?ech, . "Human Capital In Growth Regressions: How Much Difference Does Data Quality Make?," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 446.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta & Philip Hemmings, 2001. "Economic Growth: The Role of Policies and Institutions: Panel Data. Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 283, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 2000. "Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 31-77, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Franz R. Hahn, 2002. "The Finance-Growth Nexus Revisited. New Evidence from OECD Countries," WIFO Working Papers 176, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  14. Javier Andrés & Ignacio Hernando & J. David López-Salido, 1999. "The Role of the Financial System in the Growth-Inflation Link: the OECD Experience," Banco de España Working Papers 9920, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Michael Leahy & Sebastian Schich & Gert Wehinger & Florian Pelgrin & Thorsteinn Thorgeirsson, 2001. "Contributions of Financial Systems to Growth in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 280, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. Ross Levine & Sara Zervos, . "Stock markets, banks and economic growth ," CERF Discussion Paper Series 95-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
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  17. John Driffill, 2003. "Growth and Finance," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(4), pages 363-380, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Franz R. Hahn, 2006. "Finance-Growth Linkage and Risk Diversification. Evidence from OECD Countries," WIFO Working Papers 281, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
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