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Uncertainty And Monetary Policy Rules In The United States

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Author Info
CHRISTOPHER MARTIN
COSTAS MILAS

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Abstract

"This article analyzes the impact of uncertainty about the true state of the economy on monetary policy rules in the United States since the early 1980s. Extending the Taylor rule to allow for this type of uncertainty, we find evidence that the predictions of the theoretical literature on responses to uncertainty are reflected in the behavior of policymakers, suggesting that policymakers are adhering to prescriptions for optimal policy. Our estimates suggest that the effect of uncertainty on interest rates was most marked in 1983, when uncertainty increased interest rates by up to 140 basis points, in 1990-1991, when uncertainty reduced interest rates by up to 80 basis points, and in 1996-2001, when uncertainty reduced interest rates by up to 70 basis points over 5 yr. "("JEL "C51, C52, E52, E58) Copyright (c) 2008 Western Economic Association International.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2008.00160.x
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Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 47 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 206-215
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:47:y:2009:i:2:p:206-215

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  4. repec:cup:macdyn:v:8:y:2004:i:1:p:27-50 is not listed on IDEAS
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  6. Dolado, Juan J. & María-Dolores, Ramón & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2002. "Non-Linear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 3405, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Implications of a changing economic structure for the strategy of monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-348. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Pagan, Adrian & Ullah, Aman, 1988. "The Econometric Analysis of Models with Risk Terms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 87-105, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  16. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Gabriel Srour, 2003. "Some Notes on Monetary Policy Rules with Uncertainty," Working Papers 03-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Sack, Brian, 2000. "Does the fed act gradually? A VAR analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 229-256, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. John P. Judd & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16. [Downloadable!]
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