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Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa

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  • Hakim Ben Hammouda
  • Patrick N. Osakwe

Abstract

Computable general equilibrium models are widely used for trade policy analyses and recommendations. There is, however, increasing discomfort with the use of these models, especially in Africa. This article demonstrates that the results of several such studies of the impact of trade reforms in Africa differ drastically in terms of both magnitude and direction, failing to take account of key features of African economies. It also outlines potential consequences of the misuse of CGE models for policy evaluation and suggests pitfalls to be avoided. Copyright (c) The Authors 2008. Journal compilation (c) 2008 Overseas Development Institute..

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Overseas Development Institute in its journal Development Policy Review.

Volume (Year): 26 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (03)
Pages: 151-170

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Handle: RePEc:bla:devpol:v:26:y:2008:i:2:p:151-170

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  1. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
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  15. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Hertel, Thomas & Keeney, Roman & Reimer, Jeff, 2005. "Assessing Global CGE Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility," GTAP Working Papers 1875, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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Cited by:
  1. Vaqar Ahmed & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2010. "External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: A CGE - Microsimulation Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(1), pages 45-90, Jan-Jun.
  2. Cernat, Lucian & Onguglo, Bonapas, 2008. "RTAs and WTO Compatibility: Catch Me If You Can? The Case of EPA Negotiations," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 489-517.

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