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Cigarette Taxation And Demand: An Empirical Model

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  • HAI-YEN SUNG
  • TEH-WEI HU
  • THEODORE E. KEELER
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    Abstract

    "This paper evaluates the impact of taxation on cigarette consumption, using a recursive model that includes a retail price equation and a dynamic demand equation. The analysis is based on panel data for 11 western states over the period 1967-1990. Results indicate that cigarette consumption is price-sensitive, with a demand elasticity of -0.40 in the short run and -0.48 in the long run. A tax increase, such as that imposed in California in January 1989, can have a strong effect of reducing cigarette consumption by between 11.2 percent in the short run and 13.4 percent in the long run. These results support the theory of rational addiction and the hypothesis that, as a part of their oligopoly behavior, the tobacco companies often do raise end-market prices by more than the amount of the increase in tax rates". Copyright 1994 Western Economic Association International.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Contemporary Economic Policy.

    Volume (Year): 12 (1994)
    Issue (Month): 3 (07)
    Pages: 91-100

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:12:y:1994:i:3:p:91-100

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    Cited by:
    1. Decicca, P. & Kenkel, D. & Mathios, A., 2000. "Putting Out the Fires: Will Higher Taxes Reduce Youth Smoking," Papers 00-3, Aarhus School of Business - Department of Economics.
    2. Yi-Wen Tsai & Chung-Lin Yang & Chin-Shyan Chen & Tsai-Ching Liu & Pei-Fen Chen, 2005. "The effect of Taiwan's tax-induced increases in cigarette prices on brand-switching and the consumption of cigarettes," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(6), pages 627-641.
    3. Rhoads, Jennifer K., 2012. "The effect of comprehensive state tobacco control programs on adult cigarette smoking," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 393-405.
    4. Silvia Tiezzi, 2009. "The Economic Impact of Clean Indoor Air Laws: A Review of Alternative Approaches and of Empirical findings," Department of Economics University of Siena 570, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    5. Claudio Agostini, 2010. "Tributación a Los Cigarrillos: Análisis y Propuestas," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv246, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
    6. Liu, Jin-Long & Liu, Jin-Tan & Hammitt, James K. & Chou, Shin-Yi, 1999. "The price elasticity of opium in Taiwan, 1914-1942," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 795-810, December.
    7. Christopher Auld & Paul Grootendorst, 2001. "An Empirical Analysis of Milk Addiction," Working Papers 2001-17, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 05 Dec 2001.
    8. Grignon, Michel, 2009. "An empirical investigation of heterogeneity in time preferences and smoking behaviors," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 739-751, October.
    9. Claudio Agostini, 2009. "Incidencia Tributaria en el Mercado de las Gasolinas en Chile," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv223, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
    10. Chaloupka, Frank J. & Wechsler, Henry, 1997. "Price, tobacco control policies and smoking among young adults," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 359-373, June.
    11. John A. Tauras & Frank J. Chaloupka, 1999. "Determinants of Smoking Cessation: An Analysis of Young Adult Men and Women," NBER Working Papers 7262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Chung-Ping Loh & Chin-Shyan Chen & Tsai-Ching Liu, 2009. "Multiple Dimensions of Cigarette Smoking and Responsiveness to Cigarette Price Changes in Taiwan," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 203-213, June.
    13. Rajeev Goel & Michael Nelson, 2012. "Cigarette demand and effectiveness of U.S. smoking control policies: state-level evidence for more than half a century," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 1079-1095, June.
    14. Chiou, Lesley & Muehlegger, Erich, 2008. "Crossing the Line: The Effect of Cross Border Cigarette Sales on State Excise Tax Revenues," Working Paper Series rwp08-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    15. Mei-ling Sheu & Teh-wei Hu & Theodore E. Keeler & Michael Ong & Hai-Yen Sung, 2004. "The effect of a major cigarette price change on smoking behavior in california: a zero-inflated negative binomial model," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(8), pages 781-791.
    16. W. David Bradford, 2003. "Pregnancy and the Demand for Cigarettes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1752-1763, December.

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