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Exchange Rate Pass‐Through In A Small Open Economy: A Structural Var Approach

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  • Cengiz TUNC
  • Mustafa Kilinc

Abstract

Studying exchange rate pass‐through in Turkey for the period of 2006m1‐2015m6, we first show that the commonly used recursive VAR model generates unrealistic dynamics like effects of domestic variables on external variables in small open economies and biased estimates. Bias comes from unrealistic decline in energy prices in response to depreciation of currency. However, a more realistic structural VAR model suitable for small open economies generates more sensible dynamics and suggests a higher pass‐through than the recursive VAR model. Overall, our analysis demonstrates the importance of using a more realistic model setup and checking the relationships across variables when estimating ERPT in small open economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Cengiz TUNC & Mustafa Kilinc, 2018. "Exchange Rate Pass‐Through In A Small Open Economy: A Structural Var Approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 410-422, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:70:y:2018:i:4:p:410-422
    DOI: 10.1111/boer.12162
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    Cited by:

    1. Tunç, Cengiz, 2017. "A Survey on Exchange Rate Pass through in Emerging Markets," Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, BETA Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 205-233, July-Sept.
    2. Anderl, Christina & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 2023. "Nonlinearities in the exchange rate pass-through: The role of inflation expectations," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 86-101.
    3. Ümit BULUT, 2019. "The Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Turkey: Evidence from Fourier-Based Time Series Methods," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 69(2), pages 159-173, December.
    4. Umit Bulut, 2023. "Measuring the impacts of monetary policy in Turkey: an extended structural vector autoregressive model with structural breaks," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 117-132, February.
    5. Umit Bulut, 2019. "Does the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Respond Asymmetrically to Inflation and Output?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(4), pages 381-400, November.
    6. Meryem Türel & Ayhan Orhan, 2022. "Asymmetries in Exchange Rate Pass-through in Turkey: A Threshold VAR Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(3-4), pages 276-295.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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