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Population Ageing and Projections of Government Social Outlays in Australia

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  • Ross S. Guest
  • Ian M. McDonald

Abstract

This paper makes new projections of government social outlays for Australia. The calculations suggest that government social outlays will increase considerably as a percent of GDP over the next 50 years, by 7.3 percent of GDP in the base case. This is a greater increase than that found by previous investigators. Over 60 percent of this increase will occur between 2011 and 2031, the years when the baby boom generation retires. The major contribution to this increase will have come from increased government outlays on social security. Lower rates of net immigration are shown to yield an even larger increase in the percentage of government social outlays in GDP. The paper also considers the disincentive effect of taxation and the effect of increasing the age of retirement. However, notwithstanding the trends suggested by the projections, the paper argues that there are a number of reasons to be sanguine about the implications of ageing on the share of government outlays in GDP.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research in its journal The Australian Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 33 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 49-64

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:33:y:2000:i:1:p:49-64

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Cited by:
  1. Guest, Ross & McDonald, Ian, 2002. "Superannuation, Population Ageing and Living Standards in Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(1), pages 19-33, March.
  2. John Janssen, 2002. "Long-term fiscal projections and their relationship with the intertemporal budget constraint: An application to New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/05, New Zealand Treasury.
  3. George Kudrna & Chung Tran & Alan Wooland, 2014. "The Dynamic Fiscal Effects of Demographic Shift: The Case of Australia," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2014-616, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  4. O'Brien, Martin, 2004. "Hidden Unemployment and Older Male Workers," Economics Working Papers wp04-02, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  5. Chung Tran, 2014. "Temptation and Taxation with Elastic Labor," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2014-617, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  6. John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/28, New Zealand Treasury.
  7. Ross S. Ross S. & Ian M. McDonald, 2002. "Would a Decrease in Fertility Be a Threat to Living Standards in Australia?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 35(1), pages 29-44.
  8. Ross Guest, 2013. "Population Ageing and Productivity: Implications and Policy Options for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/21, New Zealand Treasury.

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