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Measuring Exchange Rate Uncertainty: The Case of the Australian Dollar 1969 to 1987

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  • Simon Avenell
  • Robert Leeson
  • Gavin Wood

Abstract

In this article indices of exchange rate uncertainty are measured from the perspective of potential impacts on trade flows. Empirical evidence based on movements in the Australian dollar spot rates and forward rates indicates that there has been an increase in currency risk between 1969 and 1987, which is not surprising given the progressive relaxation of the exchange rate regime during this period. More surprising is the finding that exchange rate uncertainty indices have risen relative to domestic financial price uncertainty indices. This would not have been expected to occur if increased currency risk had been solely due to growing instability of the underlying economic environment. However, since there is evidence that currency risk has been offset by domestic risk, the risk burden of diversified international traders may not have been adversely affected.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Avenell & Robert Leeson & Gavin Wood, 1989. "Measuring Exchange Rate Uncertainty: The Case of the Australian Dollar 1969 to 1987," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 22(2), pages 34-42, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:22:y:1989:i:2:p:34-42
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8462.1989.tb00323.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert G. Trevor & Stephen G. Donald, 1986. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Volatility of Financial Prices: The Australian Case," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8608, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Trevor, Robert G & Donald, Stephen G, 1986. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Volatility of Financial Prices: The Australian Case," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 58-66, Supplemen.
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