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Modelling the Impact of Overnight Surprises on Intra-Daily Volatility

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  • Gallo, Giampiero M

Abstract

In this paper we evaluate the impact that stock returns recorded between market closing and opening the next business day have on intra-daily volatility. A simple test shows that the estimated volatility clustering of the intra-daily returns may be affected by a market opening surprise bias. An extension of the standard GARCH model is suggested here to include the effect of this surprise and is applied on a sample of largely traded US stocks. The performance of two specifications in which this effect is included is evaluated in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise relative to their standard counterparts. Copyright 2001 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University of South Australia

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Australian Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 40 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 567-80

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:40:y:2001:i:4:p:567-80

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  1. Romer, David, 1993. "Rational Asset-Price Movements without News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1112-30, December.
  2. Stoll, Hans R & Whaley, Robert E, 1990. "Stock Market Structure and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 37-71.
  3. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1987. " Trading Mechanisms and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 533-53, July.
  4. Gerety, Mason S & Mulherin, J Harold, 1994. "Price Formation on Stock Exchanges: The Evolution of Trading within the Day," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 609-29.
  5. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
  7. Gallo, G.M. & Pacini, B., 1998. "Early News Is Good News. The Effects of Market Opening on Market Volatility," Economics Working Papers eco98/3, European University Institute.
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Cited by:
  1. Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2010. "Comparison of Volatility Measures: a Risk Management Perspective," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 8(1), pages 29-56, Winter.
  2. Hiroki Masuda & Takayuki Morimoto, 2009. "An Optimal Weight for Realized Variance Based on Intermittent High-Frequency Data," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-033, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  3. Christian T. Brownlees & Giampiero Gallo, 2007. "Volatility Forecasting Using Explanatory Variables and Focused Selection Criteria," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2007_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
  4. Pierre Blanc & R\'emy Chicheportiche & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2013. "The fine structure of volatility feedback II: overnight and intra-day effects," Papers 1309.5806, arXiv.org, revised May 2014.
  5. Todorova, Neda & Souček, Michael, 2014. "The impact of trading volume, number of trades and overnight returns on forecasting the daily realized range," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 332-340.

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