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Estimating Sources Of Fluctuations In The Australian Wool Market: An Application Of Var Methods

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  • Robert J. Myers
  • Roley R. Piggott
  • William G. Tomek

Abstract

Vector autoregression (VAR) methods are used to analyse the contribution of supply, demand and policy shocks to unpredictable fluctuations in the market for Australian wool. VAR procedures are compared with conventional structural econometric models as methods for decomposing sources of instability. While each has advantages and disadvantages, VAR procedures might be viewed as preferable when the underlying market structure is complex and uncertain, as it is in the case of wool. Based on the results obtained, demand shocks are the dominant source of uncertainty in the wool market in the absence of Australian Wool Corporation intervention, but intervention has blunted their effects, reducing market uncertainty and increasing the average level of prices and revenues.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8489.1990.tb00498.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (1990)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 242-262

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:34:y:1990:i:3:p:242-262

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References

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  1. Richardson, Bob, 1982. "On The Hidden Revenue Effects Of Wool Price Stabilisation In Australia: Initial Results - A Comment," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 26(01), April.
  2. Campbell, Rachel & Gardiner, B. & Haszler, Henry, 1980. "On The Hidden Revenue Effects Of Wool Price Stabilisation In Australia: Initial Results," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 24(01), April.
  3. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  5. R. Campbell & B. Gardiner & H. Haszler, 1980. "On The Hidden Revenue Effects Of Wool Price Stabilisation In Australia: Initial Results," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 24(1), pages 1-15, 04.
  6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  7. Fisher, Brian S., 1983. "Rational Expectations In The Australian Wool Industry," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 27(03), December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Phillips, Shauna & Bewley, Ronald A., 1991. "The Effects Of Flexible Exchange Rates On Australian Wool Prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 35(01), April.
  2. Jayne, Thomas S. & Meyers, Robert J. & Nyoro, James K., 2005. "Effects of Government Maize Marketing and Trade Policies on Maize Market Prices in Kenya," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 55162, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  3. Moir, Brian & Piggott, Roley R., 1991. "Combinations Of Buffer-Stocks And Buffer-Funds For Wool Price Stabilisation In Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 35(01), April.

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