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Do Futures Benefit Farmers?

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Author Info
Sergio H. Lence

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Abstract

Simulations are used to analyze welfare and market- and farm-level effects of making futures available to producers of a storable commodity. Key features of the model are the explicit consideration of dynamic impacts due to inventories, and of aggregate market effects associated with futures adoption by some producers. Application to the natural rubber market shows that futures availability can lead to sizable market- and farm-level effects. Futures availability enhances consumer welfare, reduces nonadopter welfare, and yields important welfare gains for adopters when their market share is small and welfare losses when they account for a sufficiently large market share. Copyright Copyright 2008 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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Article provided by American Agricultural Economics Association in its journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 91 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 154-167
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ajagec:v:91:y:2009:i:1:p:154-167

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  1. Christian Gollier, 2004. "The Economics of Risk and Time," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572249.
  2. Britto, Ronald, 1984. "The Simultaneous Determination of Spot and Futures Prices in a Simple Model with Production Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 351-65, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Zant, Wouter, 2001. "Hedging Price Risks of Farmers by Commodity Boards: A Simulation Applied to the Indian Natural Rubber Market," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-710, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Williams, Jeffrey C., 2001. "Commodity futures and options," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 745-816 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Geweke, John, 1988. "Antithetic acceleration of Monte Carlo integration in Bayesian inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 73-89. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "The Determination of Spot and Futures Prices with Storable Commodities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1363-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Chambers, Marcus J & Bailey, Roy E, 1996. "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 924-57, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Kawai, Masahiro, 1983. "Spot and Futures Prices of Nonsotrable Commodities under Rational Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(2), pages 235-54, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 2000. "U.S. Farm Policy and the Variability of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 00-wp239, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Campbell, Robert B, 1985. "The Stabilizing and Welfare Properties of Futures Markets: A Simulation Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 277-303, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 42-71, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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