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Choosing instruments in managing dollar foreign exchange reserves

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  • Robert N McCauley
  • Ben S C Fung

Abstract

Two years ago, managers of official foreign exchange reserves were pondering the uncertain but serious prospect of a shrinking stock of outstanding US Treasury securities. This concern reflected the fact that some three quarters of global foreign exchange reserves were held in US dollars, and their management traditionally favoured US Treasury securities. Today, with the US economy growing slowly after a shallow recession, and the effects of discretionary tax cuts being felt, the outstanding stock of Treasury securities is once again expanding. Moreover, while the risk of a war of unknown duration and expense attaches more than usual uncertainty to any forecast of future US deficits, there is little doubt that this expansion will continue for some time. The challenge posed by the gradual disappearance of the outstanding stock of the traditional investment vehicle no longer seems so pressing as it was two years ago. Managers of official foreign exchange reserves no longer face the gradual disappearance of the outstanding stock of their traditional investment vehicle as a given. The pressure to achieve returns in an environment of lower interest rates may nevertheless pose other challenges to reserve managers. It puts the spotlight on reserve managers’ choice of instrument. This note analyses the instruments in which central banks have invested their dollar reserves in recent years and poses three questions: How is the official dollar portfolio invested? How has the choice of instrument evolved over time? And how have recent events, including the return of recession and US fiscal deficits, lower Treasury yields and corporate defaults, altered its evolution?

Suggested Citation

  • Robert N McCauley & Ben S C Fung, 2003. "Choosing instruments in managing dollar foreign exchange reserves," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:0303e
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    1. Robert N McCauley, 2001. "Benchmark tipping in the money and bond markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert N McCauley, 2006. "Consolidating the public debt markets of Asia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Asian bond markets: issues and prospects, volume 30, pages 82-98, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Philip D Wooldridge, 2006. "The changing composition of official reserves," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    3. Jukka Pihlman & Han van der Hoorn, 2010. "Procyclicality in Central Bank Reserve Management: Evidence from the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2010/150, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Gabriele Galati & Philip Wooldridge, 2009. "The euro as a reserve currency: a challenge to the pre-eminence of the US dollar?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 1-23.
    5. Marie Brière & Valérie Mignon & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2016. "Towards greater diversification in central bank reserves," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(4), pages 295-312, July.
    6. Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko, 2011. "Asian holding of US Treasury securities: Trade integration as a threshold," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 321-335, September.
    7. Jochen Schanz, 2019. "Reserve management in emerging market economies: trends and challenges," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Reserve management and FX intervention, volume 104, pages 45-55, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Robert N McCauley & Jean-François Rigaudy, 2011. "Managing foreign exchange reserves in the crisis and after," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 19-47, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Michel Aglietta & Bronka Rzepkowski, 2004. "Le dollar et la formation d’un pôle monétaire en Asie," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 77(4), pages 147-161.
    10. Robert N McCauley, 2003. "Capital flows in East Asia since the 1997 crisis," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    11. Robert N McCauley & Catherine R Schenk, 2014. "Reforming the international monetary system in the 1970s and 2000s: would an SDR substitution account have worked?," BIS Working Papers 444, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Robert McCauley, 2005. "Distinguishing global dollar reserves from official holdings in the United States," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.

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