Threshold Autoregressions for Strongly Autocorrelated Time Series
AbstractIn some cases the unit root or near unit root behavior of linear autoregressive models fitted to economic time series is not in accordance with the underlying economic theory. To accommodate this feature we consider a threshold autoregressive (TAR) process with the threshold effect only in the intercept term. Although these processes are stationary, their realizations switch between different regimes and can therefore closely resemble those of (near) integrated processes for sample sizes relevant in many economic applications. Estimation and inference of these TAR models are discussed, and a specification test for testing their stability is derived. Testing is based on the idea that if (near) integratedness is really caused by level shifts, the series purged of these shifts should be stable so that known stationarity tests can be applied to this series. Simulation results indicate that in certain cases these tests, like several linearity tests, can have low power. The proposed model is applied to interest rate data.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.
Volume (Year): 20 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
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Web page: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jbes/index.cfm?fuseaction=main
Other versions of this item:
- Lanne, M. & Saikkonen, P., 2000. "Threshold Autoregression for Strongly Autocorrelated Time Series," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 489, Department of Economics.
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
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- Terence D.Agbeyegbe & Elena Goldman, 2005. "Estimation of threshold time series models using efficient jump MCMC," Hunter College Department of Economics Working Papers 406, Hunter College: Department of Economics, revised 2005.
- Anders Bredahl Kock & Timo Teräsvirta, 2010. "Forecasting with nonlinear time series models," CREATES Research Papers 2010-01, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "Stationarity and the term structure of interest rates: a characterisation of stationary and unit root yield curves," Working Papers 0811, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Theofanis Archontakis & Wolfgang Lemke, 2008.
"Threshold Dynamics of Short-term Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence and Implications for the Term Structure,"
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(1), pages 75-117, 02.
- Archontakis, Theofanis & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2007. "Threshold dynmamics of short-term interest rates: empirical evidence and implications for the term structure," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-18, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
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