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Are Real Exchange Rates Nonlinear or Nonstationary? Evidence from a New Threshold Unit Root Test Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Erdem Basci (Central Bank of Turkey)
Mehmet Caner (University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics)
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We analyze the post-float real exchange rates for a group of OECD countries using the newly developed threshold test and tests for unit roots against stationary but nonlinear alternative by Caner and Hansen ( 2001). These tools help us disentangle the nonlinearity from the nonstationarity rigorously for the first time in the literature. After applying the threshold test and unit root tests: we find evidence for non-linearity of exchange rates. Specifically real exchange rates behave like a unit root in a band and when the depreciation or appreciation of the currency against $US exceeds the boundaries of the band , the real exchange rates are mean-reverting. The threshold value is treated as unknown and estimated in the model.
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Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics .
Volume (Year): 9 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1273-1273
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Keywords: boundary mean-reversion random walk forecasting. rmse Other versions of this item:
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