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Nonlinear Error-Correction Models for the FF/DM Rate

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Author Info
Mustapha Baghli (GREQAM, Université de la Méditerranée)
Abstract

This paper is devoted to the empirical analysis of the dynamic behaviour of the FF/DM parity during the September 1987-July 1993 period. By explicitly allowing the strength of adjustment to vary with the extent of equilibrium error, we successively perform parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric estimations of the functional form of the nonlinear error-correction term. On the basis of these econometric tools, we highlight a stronger correction of positive deviations of the parity from the level consistent with its macroeconomic fundamentals and a nonlinear reversion towards a set of equilibrium exchange rates. This asymmetric adjustment of deviations from equilibrium discloses a reluctance for the undervaluation of the FF over the period.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 9 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1085-1085
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Handle: RePEc:bep:sndecm:9:2005:1:1085-1085

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Related research
Keywords: Nonlinear error-correction Target zone Spline smoothing Kernel smoothing

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  3. Beetsma, Roel M W J & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1994. "Intramarginal Interventions, Bands and the Pattern of EMS Exchange Rate Distributions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 583-602, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Rose, Andrew K & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 552, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Miller, Marcus & Weller, Paul, 1991. "Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1380-99, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Froot, Kenneth A. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts : A unified approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 203-229, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Peguin-Feissolle, A. & Terasvirta, T., 1999. "A General Framework for Testing the Granger Noncausality Hypothesis," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 99a42, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
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  10. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Clive W.J. Granger & Norman Swanson, 1995. "Further Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Variables," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-11, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  15. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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