This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Long Memory of the Efficient Market

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Fabrizio Lillo (Santa Fe Institute and Istituto Nazionale per la Fisica della Materia, Unita di Palermo)
J. Farmer (Santa Fe Institute)
Abstract

For the London Stock Exchange we demonstrate that the signs of orders obey a long-memory process. The autocorrelation function decays roughly as a power law with an exponent of 0.6, corresponding to a Hurst exponent H = 0.7. This implies that the signs of future orders are quite predictable from the signs of past orders; all else being equal, this would suggest a very strong market inefficiency. We demonstrate, however, that fluctuations in order signs are compensated for by anti-correlated fluctuations in transaction size and liquidity, which are also long-memory processes that act to make the returns whiter. We show that some institutions display long-range memory and others don't.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1226&context=snde
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: Subscription to the journal may be required to access full texts.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 1226-1226
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:bep:sndecm:8:2004:3:1226-1226

Note: oai:bepress:snde-1226
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.bepress.com/snde/

Order Information:
Web: http://www.bepress.com/subscriptions.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: Long-memory processes order flow limit order book market efficiency

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Takaaki Ohnishi & Hideki Takayasu & Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto & Tsutomu Watanabe & Misako Takayasu, 2008. "Dynamics of quote and deal prices in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 99-106, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Carl Chiarella & Giulia Iori & Josep Perello, 2008. "The Impact of Heterogeneous Trading Rules on the Limit Order Book and Order Flows," City University Economics Discussion Papers 08/04, Department of Economics, City University, London. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Mattarocci, Gianluca, 2006. "Market characteristics and chaos dynamics in stock markets: an international comparison," MPRA Paper 4296, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yuko Hashimoto & Takatoshi Ito & Takaaki Ohnishi & Misako Takayasu & Hideki Takayasu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2008. "Random Walk or A Run: Market Microstructure Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Rate Movements based on Conditional Probability," NBER Working Papers 14160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren & Marc Potters, 2006. "Random walks, liquidity molasses and critical response in financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 115-123, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-352, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? LogEc provides statistical analysis about downloads from this service (and others).

This page was last updated on 2008-11-19.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.