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Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates during U.S. Post-War: A Case for the Lucas Proof Equilibrium?

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Author Info
Jesús Vázquez (Universidad del País Vasco)

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Abstract

Farmer (1991) suggests that in a model in which there are multiple rational expectations (RE) equilibria agents may find it useful to coordinate their expectations in a unique RE equilibrium which is immune to the Lucas Critique. In this paper, we evaluate Lucas proof (LP) equilibrium performance in the context of the term structure of interest rates model by using post-war US data. Estimation results show that LP equilibrium exhibits some important features of the data that are not reproduced by the fundamental equilibrium. For instance, the short rate behaves as a random walk in a regime characterized by low conditional volatility, whereas the term spread Granger-causes changes in the short-rate in periods characterized by high conditional volatility.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1122-1122
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Handle: RePEc:bep:sndecm:8:2004:1:1122-1122

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Keywords: Lucas proof term structure switching-regimes

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Charles L. Evans & David Marshall, 2001. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Working Paper Series WP-01-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Campbell, John Y, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-52, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Sola, Martin & Driffill, John, 1994. "Testing the term structure of interest rates using a stationary vector autoregression with regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 601-628. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Martin D.D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Working Papers 93-06, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  7. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Favero, C. & Hendry, D., 1990. "Testing The Lucas Critique: A Review," Economics Series Working Papers 99101, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 815-28, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  13. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Farmer, Roger E A, 1991. "The Lucas Critique, Policy Invariance and Multiple Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 321-32, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Short rate nonlinearities and regime switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1243-1274, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yilmazkuday, Hakan & Akay, Koray, 2008. "An analysis of regime shifts in the Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 885-898, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
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