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Credit Market Imperfections and Business Cycle Dynamics: A Nonlinear Approach

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Author Info
Christina Atanasova (Leeds University Business School)
Abstract

Linear Vector Autoregression (VAR) models provide a useful starting point for analysing multivariate relationships between economic variables. They are frequently used for empirical macroeconomic modelling, policy analysis and forecasting. However, linear VAR systems fail to capture non-linear dynamics such as regime switching and asymmetric responses to shocks, suggested by the recent theoretical developments in macroeconomic research. In addition, an increasing body of empirical evidence suggests that the linear conditional expectations implied by standard VAR models do not always accord with the observed facts. For example, a significant number of empirical studies document asymmetries in the effects of monetary policy on output growth. This paper employs a more general nonlinear VAR methodology to re-examine previous findings that credit market conditions contribute to economic fluctuations as a propagator of shocks. Unlike linear projections it allows for nonlinear dynamics and asymmetric effects of shocks. We estimate a threshold vector autoregression (TVAR), in which the system's dynamics change back and forth between credit constrained and unconstrained regimes. Using generalised impulse response functions (GIRF) generated from the estimated nonlinear model, we examine the real effects of monetary policy. We find evidence of asymmetry in the effects of monetary policy in the credit constrained and unconstrained regimes as well as different output effects of monetary contractions and expansions.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 7 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1112-1112
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Handle: RePEc:bep:sndecm:7:2003:4:1112-1112

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Related research
Keywords: Credit Regimes Monetary Policy Transmission Asymmetries

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Juan de Dios Tena & A. R. Tremayne, 2006. "Modelling Monetary Transmission In Uk Manufacturing Industry," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws062911, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
  2. Alessandro Calza & João Sousa, 2005. "Output and inflation responses to credit shocks - are there threshold effects in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 481, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Serwa, Dobromił, 2007. "Larger crises cost more: impact of banking sector instability on output growth," MPRA Paper 5101, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Juan de Dios Tena & Edoardo Otranto, 2008. "A Realistic Model for Official Interest Rates," Working Paper CRENoS 200802, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
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