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An Empirical Evaluation of Non-Linear Trading Rules

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Author Info
Julián Andrada-Félix (University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria. Spain)
Fernando Fernadez-Rodriguez (Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain)
Maria-Dolores Garcia-Artiles (Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran canaria, Spain)
Simon Sosvilla-Rivero (FEDEA)

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Abstract

In this paper we investigate the profitability of non-linear trading rules based on nearest neighbour (NN) predictors. Applying this investment strategy to the New York Stock Exchange for the 1997-2002 period, our results suggest that, taking into account transaction costs, the NN-based trading rule is superior to both a risk-adjusted buy-and-hold strategy and a linear ARIMA-based strategy in terms of returns for all of the years studied, except for 2000 and 2001. In addition, the NN-based trading rule produces higher net returns than those from a simple buy-and-hold strategy, except for 1997. Regarding other profitability measures, the NN-based trading rule yields higher Sharpe ratios than the ARIMA-based strategy for all of the years in the sample except for 2001. As for 2001, in 36 out of the 101 cases considered, the ARIMA-based strategy gives higher Sharpe ratios than those from the NN-trading rule, in 18 cases the opposite is true, and in the remaining 36 cases both strategies yield the same ratios.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 7 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 1160-1160
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Handle: RePEc:bep:sndecm:7:2003:3:1160-1160

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Related research
Keywords: Technical trading rules Nearest neighbour predictors Security markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 1995. "Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  2. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Gonzalez-Martel, Christian & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2000. "On the profitability of technical trading rules based on artificial neural networks:: Evidence from the Madrid stock market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 89-94, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Maria Dolores Garcia-Artiles, 1997. "Using nearest neighbour predictors to forecast the Spanish stock market," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 21(1), pages 75-91, January. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1999. "Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: evidence from the EMS," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 383-392, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-68, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Allen, Franklin & Karjalainen, Risto, 1999. "Using genetic algorithms to find technical trading rules1," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 245-271, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Wolfgang Hardle & Oliver Linton, 1994. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1069, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-37, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. F. FernÁndez-RodrÍguez & S. Sosvilla-Rivero & J. Andrada-FÉlix, 2003. "Technical analysis in foreign exchange markets: evidence from the EMS," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 113-122, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. W. A. Broock & J. A. Scheinkman & W. D. Dechert & B. LeBaron, 1996. "A test for independence based on the correlation dimension," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 197-235. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hsieh, David A, 1991. " Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-77, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 159-91, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, . "Non-Linear Forecasting Methods: Some Applications to the Analysis of Financial Series," Working Papers 2002-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Perlin, M., 2007. "Evaluation of pairs trading strategy at the Brazilian financial market," MPRA Paper 8308, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Sheung Tat Chan, 2008. "Structural Change in the Efficiency of the Japanese Stock Market after the Millennium," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 7(7), pages 1-7. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada-Félix, . "Nearest-Neighbour Predictions in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 2002-05, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Perlin, M., 2007. "M of a kind: A Multivariate Approach at Pairs Trading," MPRA Paper 8309, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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